IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v165y2021i1d10.1007_s10584-021-03060-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying and projection of the relative impacts of climate change and direct human activities on streamflow fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • A. B. Dariane

    (K. N. Toosi University of Technology)

  • E. Pouryafar

    (K. N. Toosi University of Technology)

Abstract

This paper addresses this issue of distinguishing the impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow using data from the Zarrinehrood River basin in Iran. The research was carried out in three main steps. First, considering the mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as the main climatic parameters, the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow were evaluated during the historical period. Then, an approach to naturalize the historical streamflow was proposed, based on agricultural land use changes. Finally, the future trends in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow were projected for 2015–2100 period under three climate change scenarios. The results clearly show that in the study area, human activities have more impacts on the streamflow variations compared to the climate change. It was found that the human activities and especially agricultural land developments caused 21% decrease on the annual streamflow during the historical period. Considering the naturalized and observed streamflow, the changes in the climatic parameters would cause a decrease in the streamflow by nearly 8 to 23% and 14 to 44% during 2015–2100 under the three scenarios. Moreover, when compared to the historical naturalized streamflow, the reduction in future observed flow will be in a warning rate of 28 to 53%. Finally, the share of climate change in future flow reduction was found to be between 29 and 44%, while for the human activities, it is between 56 and 16% emphasizing the importance of reconsidering the trend of current agricultural developments in the area.

Suggested Citation

  • A. B. Dariane & E. Pouryafar, 2021. "Quantifying and projection of the relative impacts of climate change and direct human activities on streamflow fluctuations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:165:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03060-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03060-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03060-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03060-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mike Hulme & Elaine M. Barrow & Nigel W. Arnell & Paula A. Harrison & Timothy C. Johns & Thomas E. Downing, 1999. "Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 688-691, February.
    2. Farzane Karami & Alireza B. Dariane, 2018. "Many-Objective Multi-Scenario Algorithm for Optimal Reservoir Operation Under Future Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 3887-3902, September.
    3. Alireza Dariane & Farzane Karami, 2014. "Deriving Hedging Rules of Multi-Reservoir System by Online Evolving Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3651-3665, September.
    4. Elmira Hassanzadeh & Mahdi Zarghami & Yousef Hassanzadeh, 2012. "Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 129-145, January.
    5. Grizzetti, B. & Lanzanova, D. & Liquete, C. & Reynaud, A. & Cardoso, A.C., 2016. "Assessing water ecosystem services for water resource management," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 194-203.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guiyuan Li & Zhanneng Wu & Guo Cheng & Yixiong Yuan & Yu He & Hechi Wang, 2023. "Research on the Spatiotemporal Dynamic Relationship between Human Activity Intensity and Ecosystem Service Value in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-23, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mingjing Guo & Ziyu Jiang & Yan Bu & Jinhua Cheng, 2019. "Supporting Sustainable Development of Water Resources: A Social Welfare Maximization Game Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-15, August.
    2. Jonathan Fletcher & Nigel Willby & David M. Oliver & Richard S. Quilliam, 2023. "Field-Scale Floating Treatment Wetlands: Quantifying Ecosystem Service Provision from Monoculture vs. Polyculture Macrophyte Communities," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Siyu Yue & Huaien Li & Fengmin Song, 2023. "Temporal–Spatial Variations in the Economic Value Produced by Environmental Flows in a Water Shortage Area in Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Ali Sheikhbabaei & Aida Hosseini Baghanam & Mahdi Zarghami & Sepideh Pouri & Elmira Hassanzadeh, 2022. "System Thinking Approach toward Reclamation of Regional Water Management under Changing Climate Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Ioannis Souliotis & Nikolaos Voulvoulis, 2021. "Natural Capital Accounting Informing Water Management Policies in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-24, October.
    6. Exley, G. & Hernandez, R.R. & Page, T. & Chipps, M. & Gambro, S. & Hersey, M. & Lake, R. & Zoannou, K.-S. & Armstrong, A., 2021. "Scientific and stakeholder evidence-based assessment: Ecosystem response to floating solar photovoltaics and implications for sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Alireza Daneshi & Mostafa Panahi & Saber Masoomi & Mehdi Vafakhah & Hossein Azadi & Muhammad Mobeen & Pinar Gökcin Ozuyar & Vjekoslav Tanaskovik, 2021. "Assessment of non-monetary facilities in Urmia Lake basin under PES scheme: a rehabilitation solution for the dry lake in Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 10141-10172, July.
    8. Wei Zhang & Xiaohui Lei & Pan Liu & Xu Wang & Hao Wang & Peibing Song, 2019. "Identifying the Relationship between Assignments of Scenario Weights and their Positions in the Derivation of Reservoir Operating Rules under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 261-279, January.
    9. Chen, Haojie, 2020. "Complementing conventional environmental impact assessments of tourism with ecosystem service valuation: A case study of the Wulingyuan Scenic Area, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    10. Vera Nikolić & Zlatko Nedić & Dubravka Škraba Jurlina & Vesna Djikanović & Tamara Kanjuh & Ana Marić & Predrag Simonović, 2023. "Status and Perspectives of the Ichthyofauna of the Labudovo okno Ramsar Site: An Analysis of 14 Years of Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-14, June.
    11. Gohar, Abdelaziz A. & Cashman, Adrian, 2016. "A methodology to assess the impact of climate variability and change on water resources, food security and economic welfare," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 51-64.
    12. Jonathan Higgins & John Zablocki & Amy Newsock & Andras Krolopp & Phillip Tabas & Michael Salama, 2021. "Durable Freshwater Protection: A Framework for Establishing and Maintaining Long-Term Protection for Freshwater Ecosystems and the Values They Sustain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    13. Tatiana Kaletová & Luis Loures & Rui Alexandre Castanho & Elena Aydin & José Telo da Gama & Ana Loures & Amélie Truchy, 2019. "Relevance of Intermittent Rivers and Streams in Agricultural Landscape and Their Impact on Provided Ecosystem Services—A Mediterranean Case Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-16, July.
    14. Javad Jamshidi & Mojtaba Shourian, 2019. "Hedging Rules-Based Optimal Reservoir Operation Using Bat Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4525-4538, October.
    15. Peyman Arjomandi A. & Masoud Yazdanpanah & Akbar Shirzad & Nadejda Komendantova & Erfan Kameli & Mahdi Hosseinzadeh & Erfan Razavi, 2023. "Institutional Trust and Cognitive Motivation toward Water Conservation in the Face of an Environmental Disaster," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Maryam Ghashghaie & Safar Marofi & Hossein Marofi, 2014. "Using System Dynamics Method to Determine the Effect of Water Demand Priorities on Downstream Flow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5055-5072, November.
    17. Susan Stratton Sayre, 2019. "Pay for the Option to Pay? The Impact of Improved Scientific Information on Payments for Ecosystem Services," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 591-625, June.
    18. Hongfei Zhao & Hongming He & Jingjing Wang & Chunyu Bai & Chuangjuan Zhang, 2018. "Vegetation Restoration and Its Environmental Effects on the Loess Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, December.
    19. Silvia Ronchi & Andrea Arcidiacono, 2018. "Adopting an Ecosystem Services-Based Approach for Flood Resilient Strategies: The Case of Rocinha Favela (Brazil)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Samaneh Ashraf & Amir AghaKouchak & Ali Nazemi & Ali Mirchi & Mojtaba Sadegh & Hamed R. Moftakhari & Elmira Hassanzadeh & Chi-Yuan Miao & Kaveh Madani & Mohammad Mousavi Baygi & Hassan Anjileli & Davo, 2019. "Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 379-391, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:165:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03060-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.