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Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale

Author

Listed:
  • Yeshewatesfa Hundecha

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

  • Berit Arheimer

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

  • Peter Berg

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

  • René Capell

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

  • Jude Musuuza

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

  • Ilias Pechlivanidis

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

  • Christiana Photiadou

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

Abstract

The effect of model calibration on the projection of climate change impact on hydrological indicators was assessed by employing variants of a pan-European hydrological model driven by forcing data from an ensemble of climate models. The hydrological model was calibrated using three approaches: calibration at the outlets of major river basins, regionalization through calibration of smaller scale catchments with unique catchment characteristics, and building a model ensemble by sampling model parameters from the regionalized model. The large-scale patterns of the change signals projected by all model variants were found to be similar for the different indicators. Catchment scale differences were observed between the projections of the model calibrated for the major river basins and the other two model variants. The distributions of the median change signals projected by the ensemble model were found to be similar to the distributions of the change signals projected by the regionalized model for all hydrological indicators. The study highlights that the spatial detail to which model calibration is performed can highly influence the catchment scale detail in the projection of climate change impact on hydrological indicators, with an absolute difference in the projections of the locally calibrated model and the model calibrated for the major river basins ranging between 0 and 55% for mean annual discharge, while it has little effect on the large-scale pattern of the projection.

Suggested Citation

  • Yeshewatesfa Hundecha & Berit Arheimer & Peter Berg & René Capell & Jude Musuuza & Ilias Pechlivanidis & Christiana Photiadou, 2020. "Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1287-1306, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02874-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02874-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chantal Donnelly & Wouter Greuell & Jafet Andersson & Dieter Gerten & Giovanna Pisacane & Philippe Roudier & Fulco Ludwig, 2017. "Erratum to: Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 535-535, August.
    2. Chantal Donnelly & Wouter Greuell & Jafet Andersson & Dieter Gerten & Giovanna Pisacane & Philippe Roudier & Fulco Ludwig, 2017. "Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 13-26, July.
    3. I. G. Pechlivanidis & B. Arheimer & C. Donnelly & Y. Hundecha & S. Huang & V. Aich & L. Samaniego & S. Eisner & P. Shi, 2017. "Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 467-481, April.
    4. B. Arheimer & C. Donnelly & G. Lindström, 2017. "Regulation of snow-fed rivers affects flow regimes more than climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
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