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Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins

Author

Listed:
  • Shaochun Huang

    (The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Harsh Shah

    (Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar)

  • Bibi S. Naz

    (Juelich Research Center GmbH, Institute of Bio- and Geosciences: Agrosphere (IBG 3))

  • Narayan Shrestha

    (University of Guelph)

  • Vimal Mishra

    (Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar)

  • Prasad Daggupati

    (University of Guelph)

  • Uttam Ghimire

    (University of Guelph)

  • Tobias Vetter

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the influence of hydrological model calibration/validation on discharge projections for three large river basins (the Rhine, Upper Mississippi and Upper Yellow). Three hydrological models (HMs), which have been firstly calibrated against the monthly discharge at the outlet of each basin (simple calibration), were re-calibrated against the daily discharge at the outlet and intermediate gauges under contrast climate conditions simultaneously (enhanced calibration). In addition, the models were validated in terms of hydrological indicators of interest (median, low and high flows) as well as actual evapotranspiration in the historical period. The models calibrated using both calibration methods were then driven by the same bias corrected climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). The hydrological changes of the indicators were represented by the ensemble median, ensemble mean and ensemble weighted means of all combinations of HMs and GCMs under each RCP. The results showed moderate (5–10%) to strong influence (> 10%) of the calibration methods on the ensemble medians/means for the Mississippi, minor to moderate (up to 10%) influence for the Yellow and minor (

Suggested Citation

  • Shaochun Huang & Harsh Shah & Bibi S. Naz & Narayan Shrestha & Vimal Mishra & Prasad Daggupati & Uttam Ghimire & Tobias Vetter, 2020. "Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1143-1164, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02872-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02872-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. F. Hattermann & V. Krysanova & S. N. Gosling & R. Dankers & P. Daggupati & C. Donnelly & M. Flörke & S. Huang & Y. Motovilov & S. Buda & T. Yang & C. Müller & G. Leng & Q. Tang & F. T. Portmann & S, 2017. "Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 561-576, April.
    2. Valentina Krysanova & Fred F. Hattermann, 2017. "Intercomparison of climate change impacts in 12 large river basins: overview of methods and summary of results," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 363-379, April.
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    4. Simon N. Gosling & Jamal Zaherpour & Nick J. Mount & Fred F. Hattermann & Rutger Dankers & Berit Arheimer & Lutz Breuer & Jie Ding & Ingjerd Haddeland & Rohini Kumar & Dipangkar Kundu & Junguo Liu & A, 2017. "Erratum to: A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 597-598, April.
    5. Simon N. Gosling & Jamal Zaherpour & Nick J. Mount & Fred F. Hattermann & Rutger Dankers & Berit Arheimer & Lutz Breuer & Jie Ding & Ingjerd Haddeland & Rohini Kumar & Dipangkar Kundu & Junguo Liu & A, 2017. "A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 577-595, April.
    6. Tobias Vetter & Julia Reinhardt & Martina Flörke & Ann Griensven & Fred Hattermann & Shaochun Huang & Hagen Koch & Ilias G. Pechlivanidis & Stefan Plötner & Ousmane Seidou & Buda Su & R. Willem Vervoo, 2017. "Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 419-433, April.
    7. Shaochun Huang & Rohini Kumar & Martina Flörke & Tao Yang & Yeshewatesfa Hundecha & Philipp Kraft & Chao Gao & Alexander Gelfan & Stefan Liersch & Anastasia Lobanova & Michael Strauch & Floris Ogtrop , 2017. "Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 381-397, April.
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