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How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Valentina Krysanova

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Jamal Zaherpour
  • Iulii Didovets

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Simon N. Gosling

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Dieter Gerten

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Naota Hanasaki

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Hannes Müller Schmied

    (Goethe-University Frankfurt
    Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F))

  • Yadu Pokhrel

    (Michigan State University)

  • Yusuke Satoh

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Qiuhong Tang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yoshihide Wada

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

Abstract

Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index of model performance for each model in each basin. One model showed a good performance, and other five showed a weak or poor performance in most of the basins. In 15 catchments, evaluation results of all models were poor. The model evaluation was supplemented by climate impact assessment for a subset of 12 representative catchments using (1) usual ensemble mean approach and (2) weighted mean approach based on model performance, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison of impacts in terms of mean monthly and mean annual discharges using two approaches has shown that in four basins, differences were negligible or small, and in eight catchments, differences in mean monthly, mean annual discharge or both were moderate to large. The spreads were notably decreased in most cases when the second method was applied. It can be concluded that for improving credibility of projections, the model evaluation and application of the weighted mean approach could be recommended, especially if the mean monthly (seasonal) impacts are of interest, whereas the ensemble mean approach could be applied for projecting the mean annual changes. The calibration of gHMs could improve their performance and, consequently, the credibility of projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Krysanova & Jamal Zaherpour & Iulii Didovets & Simon N. Gosling & Dieter Gerten & Naota Hanasaki & Hannes Müller Schmied & Yadu Pokhrel & Yusuke Satoh & Qiuhong Tang & Yoshihide Wada, 2020. "How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1353-1377, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02840-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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