IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v162y2020i3d10.1007_s10584-020-02746-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports

Author

Listed:
  • Scott Janzwood

    (University of Waterloo)

Abstract

The uncertainty language framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is designed to encourage the consistent characterization and communication of uncertainty between chapters, working groups, and reports. However, the framework has not been updated since 2010, despite criticism that it was applied inconsistently in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and that the distinctions between the framework’s three language scales remain unclear. This article presents a mixed-methods analysis of the application and underlying interpretation of the uncertainty language framework by IPCC authors in the three special reports published since AR5. First, I present an analysis of uncertainty language term usage in three recent special reports: Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), and The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). The language usage analysis highlights how many of the trends identified in previous reports—like the significant increase in the use of confidence terms—have carried forward into the special reports. These observed trends, along with ongoing debates in the literature on how to interpret the framework’s three language scales, inform an analysis of IPCC author experiences interpreting and implementing the framework. This discussion is informed by interviews with IPCC authors. Lastly, I propose several recommendations for clarifying the IPCC uncertainty language framework to address persistent sources of confusion highlighted by the authors.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Janzwood, 2020. "Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1655-1675, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02746-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Post-Print hal-01966704, HAL.
    2. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
    3. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2015. "An Evaluation of the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 701-712, April.
    4. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment," Working Papers hal-01933825, HAL.
    5. Judith Curry, 2011. "Reasoning about climate uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 723-732, October.
    6. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach, 2011. "Treatment of uncertainties in IPCC Assessment Reports: past approaches and considerations for the Fifth Assessment Report," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 659-673, October.
    7. Roger Jones, 2011. "The latest iteration of IPCC uncertainty guidance—an author perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 733-743, October.
    8. Helgeson, Casey & Bradley, Richard & Hill, Brian, 2018. "Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment," HEC Research Papers Series 1298, HEC Paris.
    9. Rachael Jonassen & Roger Pielke, 2011. "Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 745-753, October.
    10. Rob Swart & Lenny Bernstein & Minh Ha-Duong & Arthur Petersen, 2009. "Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 1-29, January.
    11. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach & Gian-Kasper Plattner & Ottmar Edenhofer & Thomas Stocker & Christopher Field & Kristie Ebi & Patrick Matschoss, 2011. "The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 675-691, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lea Berrang‐Ford & Friederike Döbbe & Ruth Garside & Neal Haddaway & William F. Lamb & Jan C. Minx & Wolfgang Viechtbauer & Vivian Welch & Howard White, 2020. "Editorial: Evidence synthesis for accelerated learning on climate solutions," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), December.
    2. Tomas Molina & Ernest Abadal, 2021. "The Evolution of Communicating the Uncertainty of Climate Change to Policymakers: A Study of IPCC Synthesis Reports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, February.
    3. A. Kause & W. Bruine de Bruin & J. Persson & H. Thorén & L. Olsson & A. Wallin & S. Dessai & N. Vareman, 2022. "Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Laura C. Bowling & Keith A. Cherkauer & Charlotte I. Lee & Janna L. Beckerman & Sylvie Brouder & Jonathan R. Buzan & Otto C. Doering & Jeffrey S. Dukes & Paul D. Ebner & Jane R. Frankenberger & Benjam, 2020. "Agricultural impacts of climate change in Indiana and potential adaptations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2005-2027, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Kause & W. Bruine de Bruin & J. Persson & H. Thorén & L. Olsson & A. Wallin & S. Dessai & N. Vareman, 2022. "Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Marina Baldissera Pacchetti & Suraje Dessai & David A. Stainforth & Seamus Bradley, 2021. "Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
    4. Victor Cardenas, 2024. "Financial climate risk: a review of recent advances and key challenges," Papers 2404.07331, arXiv.org.
    5. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2015. "An Evaluation of the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 701-712, April.
    6. Rosemarie McMahon & Michael Stauffacher & Reto Knutti, 2015. "The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 141-154, November.
    7. Monika Berg & Rolf Lidskog, 2018. "Pathways to deliberative capacity: the role of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 11-24, May.
    8. J. Refsgaard & K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen & M. Drews & K. Halsnæs & E. Jeppesen & H. Madsen & A. Markandya & J. Olesen & J. Porter & J. Christensen, 2013. "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 337-359, March.
    9. Kari De Pryck, 2021. "Controversial Practices: Tracing the Proceduralization of the IPCC in Time and Space," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S7), pages 80-89, December.
    10. Anna Wesselink & Andrew Challinor & James Watson & Keith Beven & Icarus Allen & Helen Hanlon & Ana Lopez & Susanne Lorenz & Friederike Otto & Andy Morse & Cameron Rye & Stephane Saux-Picard & David St, 2015. "Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 1-14, September.
    11. David Klenert & Franziska Funke & Linus Mattauch & Brian O’Callaghan, 2020. "Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 751-778, August.
    12. Lea Berrang‐Ford & Friederike Döbbe & Ruth Garside & Neal Haddaway & William F. Lamb & Jan C. Minx & Wolfgang Viechtbauer & Vivian Welch & Howard White, 2020. "Editorial: Evidence synthesis for accelerated learning on climate solutions," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), December.
    13. Tomich, Thomas P. & Lidder, Preetmoninder & Coley, Mariah & Gollin, Douglas & Meinzen-Dick, Ruth & Webb, Patrick & Carberry, Peter, 2019. "Food and agricultural innovation pathways for prosperity," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 1-15.
    14. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    15. Ottmar Edenhofer & Carlo Carraro & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2012. "On the economics of decarbonization in an imperfect world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 1-8, September.
    16. Mort Webster, 2009. "Uncertainty and the IPCC. An editorial comment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 37-40, January.
    17. Kaya, Gulsum Kubra & Hocaoglu, Mehmet Fatih, 2020. "Semi-quantitative application to the Functional Resonance Analysis Method for supporting safety management in a complex health-care process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Feliciani, Thomas & Morreau, Michael & Luo, Junwen & Lucas, Pablo & Shankar, Kalpana, 2022. "Designing grant-review panels for better funding decisions: Lessons from an empirically calibrated simulation model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(4).
    19. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    20. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:363-393 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Aven, Terje, 2018. "How the integration of System 1-System 2 thinking and recent risk perspectives can improve risk assessment and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 237-244.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02746-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.