IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v142y2017i1d10.1007_s10584-017-1942-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation of leaf blast infection in tropical rice agro-ecology under climate change scenario

Author

Listed:
  • K. Viswanath

    (ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute
    RARS, ANGRAU)

  • P. Sinha

    (ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute)

  • S. Naresh Kumar

    (ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute)

  • Taru Sharma

    (ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute)

  • Shalini Saxena

    (ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute)

  • Shweta Panjwani

    (ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute)

  • H. Pathak

    (ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute)

  • Shalu Mishra Shukla

    (ICAR–Indian Agricultural Research Institute)

Abstract

Assessing disease risk has become an important component in the development of climate change adaptation strategies. Here, the infection ability of leaf blast (Magnaporthe oryzae) was modeled based on the epidemiological parameters of minimum (T min), optimum (T opt), and maximum (T max) temperatures for sporulation and lesion development. An infection ability response curve was used to assess the impact of rising temperature on the disease. The simulated spatial pattern of the infection ability index (IAI) corresponded with observed leaf blast occurrence in Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP). The IAI for leaf blast is projected to increase during the winter season (December–March) in 2020 (2010–2039) and 2050 (2040–2069) climate scenarios due to temperature rise, particularly in lower latitudes. However, during monsoon season (July–October), the IAI is projected to remain unchanged or even reduce across the IGP. The results show that the response curve may be successfully used to assess the impact of climate change on leaf blast in rice. The model could be further extended with a crop model to assess yield loss.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Viswanath & P. Sinha & S. Naresh Kumar & Taru Sharma & Shalini Saxena & Shweta Panjwani & H. Pathak & Shalu Mishra Shukla, 2017. "Simulation of leaf blast infection in tropical rice agro-ecology under climate change scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 155-167, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1942-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1942-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-1942-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-1942-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aggarwal, P.K. & Banerjee, B. & Daryaei, M.G. & Bhatia, A. & Bala, A. & Rani, S. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H. & Kalra, N., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 47-67, July.
    2. Pinkard, E.A. & Kriticos, D.J. & Wardlaw, T.J. & Carnegie, A.J. & Leriche, Agathe, 2010. "Estimating the spatio-temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(23), pages 2828-2838.
    3. Matthew C. Fisher & Daniel. A. Henk & Cheryl J. Briggs & John S. Brownstein & Lawrence C. Madoff & Sarah L. McCraw & Sarah J. Gurr, 2012. "Emerging fungal threats to animal, plant and ecosystem health," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7393), pages 186-194, April.
    4. Naresh Soora & P. Aggarwal & Rani Saxena & Swaroopa Rani & Surabhi Jain & Nitin Chauhan, 2013. "An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 683-699, June.
    5. Aggarwal, P.K. & Kalra, N. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-25, July.
    6. Bregaglio, Simone & Cappelli, Giovanni & Donatelli, Marcello, 2012. "Evaluating the suitability of a generic fungal infection model for pest risk assessment studies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 58-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyoung-Tae Lee & Hye-Won Jeon & Sook-Young Park & Jaepil Cho & Kwang-Hyung Kim, 2022. "Comparison of projected rice blast epidemics in the Korean Peninsula between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Maria Lodovica Gullino & Ramon Albajes & Ibrahim Al-Jboory & Francislene Angelotti & Subrata Chakraborty & Karen A. Garrett & Brett Phillip Hurley & Peter Juroszek & Ralf Lopian & Khaled Makkouk & Xub, 2022. "Climate Change and Pathways Used by Pests as Challenges to Plant Health in Agriculture and Forestry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Wang, Hui & Mongiano, Gabriele & Fanchini, Davide & Titone, Patrizia & Tamborini, Luigi & Bregaglio, Simone, 2021. "Varietal susceptibility overcomes climate change effects on the future trends of rice blast disease in Northern Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shirsath, Paresh B. & Aggarwal, P.K. & Thornton, P.K. & Dunnett, A., 2017. "Prioritizing climate-smart agricultural land use options at a regional scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 174-183.
    2. Paresh B. Shirsath & Vinay Kumar Sehgal & Pramod K. Aggarwal, 2020. "Downscaling Regional Crop Yields to Local Scale Using Remote Sensing," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Kattarkandi Byjesh & Soora Kumar & Pramod Aggarwal, 2010. "Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 413-431, June.
    4. Fargue-Lelièvre, A. & Le Cœur, D. & Baudry, J., 2011. "Integrating farming techniques in an ecological matrix model: Implementation on the primrose (Primula vulgaris)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 1002-1015.
    5. Sulav Paudel & Lalit P. Sah & Mukti Devkota & Vijaya Poudyal & P.V. Vara Prasad & Manuel R. Reyes, 2020. "Conservation Agriculture and Integrated Pest Management Practices Improve Yield and Income while Reducing Labor, Pests, Diseases and Chemical Pesticide Use in Smallholder Vegetable Farms in Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Singh, P. & Aggarwal, P. K. & Bhatia, V. S. & Murty, M. V. R. & Pala, M. & Oweis, T. & Benli, B. & Rao, K. P. C. & Wani, S. P., 2009. "Yield gap analysis: modelling of achievable yields at farm level," IWMI Books, Reports H041995, International Water Management Institute.
    7. Selvaraj Krishnan & Subhash Chander, 2015. "Simulation of climatic change impact on crop-pest interactions: a case study of rice pink stem borer Sesamia inferens (Walker)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(2), pages 259-272, July.
    8. Kalra, Naveen & Chakraborty, Debashis & Ramesh Kumar, P. & Jolly, Monica & Sharma, P.K., 2007. "An approach to bridging yield gaps, combining response to water and other resource inputs for wheat in northern India, using research trials and farmers' fields data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 54-64, October.
    9. Faramarzi, Monireh & Yang, Hong & Schulin, Rainer & Abbaspour, Karim C., 2010. "Modeling wheat yield and crop water productivity in Iran: Implications of agricultural water management for wheat production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(11), pages 1861-1875, November.
    10. Mohammed Khalil Mellal & Rassim Khelifa & Abdelmadjid Chelli & Naima Djouadi & Khodir Madani, 2023. "Combined Effects of Climate and Pests on Fig ( Ficus carica L.) Yield in a Mediterranean Region: Implications for Sustainable Agricultural Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-12, March.
    11. Dhakar, Rajkumar & Sehgal, Vinay Kumar & Chakraborty, Debasish & Sahoo, Rabi Narayan & Mukherjee, Joydeep & Ines, Amor V.M. & Kumar, Soora Naresh & Shirsath, Paresh B. & Roy, Somnath Baidya, 2022. "Field scale spatial wheat yield forecasting system under limited field data availability by integrating crop simulation model with weather forecast and satellite remote sensing," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    12. Verma, Amit Kumar & Garg, Pradeep Kumar & Prasad, K.S. Hari & Dadhwal, Vinay Kumar, 2023. "Variety-specific sugarcane yield simulations and climate change impacts on sugarcane yield using DSSAT-CSM-CANEGRO model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    13. Naresh Soora & P. Aggarwal & Rani Saxena & Swaroopa Rani & Surabhi Jain & Nitin Chauhan, 2013. "An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 683-699, June.
    14. Dubey, Rachana & Pathak, Himanshu & Chakrabarti, Bidisha & Singh, Shivdhar & Gupta, Dipak Kumar & Harit, R.C., 2020. "Impact of terminal heat stress on wheat yield in India and options for adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    15. Tapendra Kumar Srivastava & Pushpa Singh & Ram Ratan Verma, 2022. "Weather variability trends in Gangetic plains of Uttar Pradesh, India: influence on cropping systems and adaptation strategies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3588-3618, March.
    16. Tiecheng Bai & Nannan Zhang & Youqi Chen & Benoit Mercatoris, 2019. "Assessing the Performance of the WOFOST Model in Simulating Jujube Fruit Tree Growth under Different Irrigation Regimes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Alobid, Mohannad & István, Szűcs, 2019. "Evaluation Of Crop And Irrigation Water Requirements For Some Selected Crops In Apulia Region -Southern Italy," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 13(3-4), December.
    18. Jha, Brajesh & Tripathi, Amarnath, 2011. "Isn’t Climate Change Affecting Wheat Productivity in India?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(3), pages 1-12.
    19. M. Sujithra & Subhash Chander, 2013. "Simulation of rice brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stal.) population and crop-pest interactions to assess climate change impact," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 331-347, November.
    20. Trnka, M. & Muška, F. & Semerádová, D. & Dubrovský, M. & Kocmánková, E. & Žalud, Z., 2007. "European Corn Borer life stage model: Regional estimates of pest development and spatial distribution under present and future climate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 61-84.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1942-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.