IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v129y2015i3p381-395.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling high-impact weather and climate: lessons from a tropical cyclone perspective

Author

Listed:
  • James Done
  • Greg Holland
  • Cindy Bruyère
  • L. Leung
  • Asuka Suzuki-Parker

Abstract

Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding and capacity to model the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be adequate to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • James Done & Greg Holland & Cindy Bruyère & L. Leung & Asuka Suzuki-Parker, 2015. "Modeling high-impact weather and climate: lessons from a tropical cyclone perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 381-395, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:3:p:381-395
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0954-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-0954-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-0954-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel A. Vecchi & Brian J. Soden, 2007. "Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity," Nature, Nature, vol. 450(7172), pages 1066-1070, December.
    2. Lee Parker, 2011. "The conference paper," Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 204-204, December.
    3. Kunreuther, Howard C. & Michel-Kerjan, Erwann O., 2011. "At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262516543, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit, 2019. "Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 175-193, July.
    2. Mathieu Mure-Ravaud & M. Levent Kavvas & Alain Dib, 2019. "Investigation of Intense Precipitation from Tropical Cyclones during the 21st Century by Dynamical Downscaling of CCSM4 RCP 4.5," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-27, February.
    3. Piyush Jain & Mari R. Tye & Debasish Paimazumder & Mike Flannigan, 2020. "Downscaling fire weather extremes from historical and projected climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 189-216, November.
    4. Kevin M. Simmons & Jeffrey Czajkowski & James M. Done, 2019. "Building code economic performance under variable wind risk," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 235-258, February.
    5. Jeffrey Czajkowski & Kevin M. Simmons & James M. Done, 2017. "Demonstrating the Intensive Benefit to the Local Implementation of a Statewide Building Code," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 363-390, December.
    6. Altay, Nezih & Narayanan, Arunachalam, 2022. "Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1234-1244.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2015. "Demand for fixed-price multi-year contracts: Experimental evidence from insurance decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 171-194, October.
    2. Oliver Walker & Simon Dietz, 2012. "Ambiguity and insurance: robust capital requirements and premiums," GRI Working Papers 97, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    3. Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Veronika Pisarenko, 2017. "Teaching a Foreign Language Using Videos," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-21, October.
    5. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    6. Dietz, Simon & Walker, Oliver, 2017. "Ambiguity and insurance: capital requirements andpremiums," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68469, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Wang, Chen & Sun, Jiayi & Russell, Roddy & Daziano, Ricardo A., 2018. "Analyzing willingness to improve the resilience of New York City's transportation system," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 10-19.
    8. Vijay Aseervatham & Patricia Born & Dominik Lohmaier & Andreas Richter, 2017. "Hazard-Specific Supply Reactions in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(2), pages 193-225, April.
    9. Melanie Gall & Kevin A. Borden & Christopher T. Emrich & Susan L. Cutter, 2011. "The Unsustainable Trend of Natural Hazard Losses in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(11), pages 1-25, November.
    10. Trevor Maynard & Nicola Ranger, 2011. "What role for �long-term� insurance in adaptation? An analysis of the prospects for and pricing of multi-year insurance contracts," GRI Working Papers 62, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    11. Hudson, Paul & Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Feyen, Luc & Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H., 2016. "Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums: Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Graciano Yumul & Nathaniel Servando & Leilanie Suerte & Mae Magarzo & Leo Juguan & Carla Dimalanta, 2012. "Tropical cyclone–southwest monsoon interaction and the 2008 floods and landslides in Panay island, central Philippines: meteorological and geological factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(3), pages 827-840, July.
    13. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2021. "Emotional Markets: Competitive Arousal, Overbidding and Bubbles," Working Papers 2117, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    14. Paul Raschky & Reimund Schwarze & Manijeh Schwindt & Ferdinand Zahn, 2013. "Uncertainty of Governmental Relief and the Crowding out of Flood Insurance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 179-200, February.
    15. Haitao Yin, 2013. "Insurance Approach for Financing Extreme Climate Event Losses in China: A Status Analysis," EEPSEA Research Report rr2013035, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Mar 2013.
    16. Sebastian von Dahlen & Goetz von Peter, 2012. "Natural catastrohpes and global reinsurance - exploring the linkages," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    17. Michal W. Krawczyk & Stefan T. Trautmann & Gijs Kuilen, 2017. "Catastrophic risk: social influences on insurance decisions," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 82(3), pages 309-326, March.
    18. Laure Cabantous & Denis Hilton & Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2011. "Is imprecise knowledge better than conflicting expertise? Evidence from insurers’ decisions in the United States," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 211-232, June.
    19. S. Surminski & J. Aerts & W. Botzen & P. Hudson & J. Mysiak & C. Pérez-Blanco, 2015. "Reflections on the current debate on how to link flood insurance and disaster risk reduction in the European Union," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1451-1479, December.
    20. Mir Mousavi & Jennifer Irish & Ashley Frey & Francisco Olivera & Billy Edge, 2011. "Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 575-597, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:3:p:381-395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.