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Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

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  • Martin Schmid
  • Stefan Hunziker
  • Alfred Wüest

Abstract

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Martin Schmid & Stefan Hunziker & Alfred Wüest, 2014. "Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 301-315, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:301-315
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1087-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Komatsu, Eiji & Fukushima, Takehiko & Harasawa, Hideo, 2007. "A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 351-366.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Butcher & Daniel Nover & Thomas Johnson & Christopher Clark, 2015. "Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 295-305, March.
    2. Jian Zhou & Peter R. Leavitt & Kevin C. Rose & Xiwen Wang & Yibo Zhang & Kun Shi & Boqiang Qin, 2023. "Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & R. Iestyn Woolway & Christopher J. Merchant, 2020. "Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 427-442, June.
    4. R. Iestyn Woolway & John H. Simpson & David Spiby & Heidrun Feuchtmayr & Ben Powell & Stephen C. Maberly, 2018. "Physical and chemical impacts of a major storm on a temperate lake: a taste of things to come?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 333-347, November.
    5. Ulrike Gabriele Kobler & Alfred Wüest & Martin Schmid, 2019. "Combined effects of pumped-storage operation and climate change on thermal structure and water quality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 413-429, March.
    6. R. Iestyn Woolway & Martin T. Dokulil & Wlodzimierz Marszelewski & Martin Schmid & Damien Bouffard & Christopher J. Merchant, 2017. "Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 505-520, June.

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