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Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality

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  • Scott Sheridan

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  • Michael Allen
  • Cameron Lee
  • Laurence Kalkstein
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    Abstract

    Through the 21 st century, a significant increase in heat events is likely across California (USA). Beyond any climate change, the state will become more vulnerable through demographic changes resulting in a rapidly aging population. To assess these impacts, future heat-related mortality estimates are derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century. Heat-related mortality is first assessed by initially determining historical weather-type mortality relationships for each metropolitan area. These are then projected into the future based on predicted weather types created in Part I. Estimates account for several levels of uncertainty: for each metropolitan area, mortality values are produced for five different climate model-scenarios, three different population projections (along with a constant-population model), and with and without partial acclimatization. Major urban centers could have a greater than tenfold increase in short-term increases in heat-related mortality in the over 65 age group by the 2090s. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-012-0437-1
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

    Volume (Year): 115 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (November)
    Pages: 311-326

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:311-326

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    Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

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