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A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises

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  • Mark C. Quigley

    (University of Melbourne
    University of Canterbury)

  • Januka Attanayake

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Andrew King

    (University of Melbourne
    University of Melbourne)

  • Fabian Prideaux

    (Humanitarian Benchmark Consulting (HBC))

Abstract

Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised, hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary socioeconomic changes (e.g. reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical, economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities. COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian responses (e.g. evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event predicts a greater infection rate following events during the pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events, highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence base for informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark C. Quigley & Januka Attanayake & Andrew King & Fabian Prideaux, 2020. "A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 199-215, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:40:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10669-020-09772-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-020-09772-1
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    1. Rizwana Subhani & Shahab E. Saqib & Md. Anishur Rahman & Mokbul Morshed Ahmad & Siriporn Pradit, 2021. "Impact of Cyclone Yaas 2021 Aggravated by COVID-19 Pandemic in the Southwest Coastal Zone of Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Syed Abdul Rehman Khan & Muhammad Waqas & Xue Honggang & Naveed Ahmad & Zhang Yu, 2022. "Adoption of innovative strategies to mitigate supply chain disruption: COVID-19 pandemic," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 1115-1133, December.
    3. W. J. Wouter Botzen & Jantsje M. Mol & Peter J. Robinson & Juan Zhang & Jeffrey Czajkowski, 2022. "Individual hurricane evacuation intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights for risk communication and emergency management policies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 507-522, March.
    4. Benjamin D. Trump & Igor Linkov, 2020. "Risk and resilience in the time of the COVID-19 crisis," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 171-173, June.
    5. Andra-Cosmina Albulescu, 2023. "Exploring the links between flood events and the COVID-19 infection cases in Romania in the new multi-hazard-prone era," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1611-1631, June.
    6. Takako Izumi & Sangita Das & Miwa Abe & Rajib Shaw, 2022. "Managing Compound Hazards: Impact of COVID-19 and Cases of Adaptive Governance during the 2020 Kumamoto Flood in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Gerald Potutan & Masaru Arakida, 2021. "Evolving Disaster Response Practices during COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-11, March.
    8. Sharov, Konstantin S., 2020. "Creating and applying SIR modified compartmental model for calculation of COVID-19 lockdown efficiency," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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