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Einsatzmöglichkeiten von Small Area-Verfahren bei Kohortenschätzungen im Zensus 2021
[Applicablity of small area estimation methods for demographic cohorts in the Census 2021]

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Zimmermann

    (Statistisches Bundesamt)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Wie schon 2011 wird auch 2021 in Deutschland wieder ein registergestützter Zensus durchgeführt. Dabei werden die benötigten Informationen soweit wie möglich aus Melderegistern und anderen Verwaltungsdaten zusammengetragen und um weitere Informationen aus Primärerhebungen ergänzt. Eine jener Erhebungen ist die Haushaltsstichprobe, deren wichtigster Zweck die Korrektur der Register um Karteileichen und Fehlbestände zur Schätzung der Einwohnerzahl ist. Darüber hinaus wird mit Hilfe der Haushaltsstichprobe eine Vielzahl von weiteren regional und inhaltlich tief gegliederten Zensusergebnissen ermittelt, wie zum Beispiel für regional und demographisch differenzierte Bevölkerungskohorten. Da es nicht möglich ist für alle Kohorten einen ausreichend großen Stichprobenumfang sicherzustellen, können design-basierte Schätzverfahren keine verlässlichen Schätzwerte für jene Kohorten garantieren. Im vorliegenden Beitrag untersuchen wir daher, inwiefern geeignete Small Area-Schätzverfahren verlässliche und plausible Ergebnisse für regional und demographisch differenzierte Bevölkerungskohorten im Zensus liefern können.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Zimmermann, 2019. "Einsatzmöglichkeiten von Small Area-Verfahren bei Kohortenschätzungen im Zensus 2021 [Applicablity of small area estimation methods for demographic cohorts in the Census 2021]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 13(2), pages 157-177, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:13:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11943-019-00243-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-019-00243-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nikos Tzavidis & Li‐Chun Zhang & Angela Luna & Timo Schmid & Natalia Rojas‐Perilla, 2018. "From start to finish: a framework for the production of small area official statistics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(4), pages 927-979, October.
    2. Burgard, Jan Pablo & Münnich, Ralf T., 2012. "Modelling over and undercounts for design-based Monte Carlo studies in small area estimation: An application to the German register-assisted census," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2856-2863.
    3. Ralf Münnich & Jan Burgard & Martin Vogt, 2013. "Small Area-Statistik: Methoden und Anwendungen," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 6(3), pages 149-191, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Log-lineare Modelle; Multidimensionale Häufigkeitstabellen; Modellwahl; Geschlechterproportionen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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