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Forecasting Stock Market Indices with the Composite Leading Indicators: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Esra Nazmiye KILCI

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate the empirical performance of composite leading indicators (CLIs) in forecasting stock market indices for Turkey in the period from 2007:03 through 2019:07. After examining the stationarity of the series by using Narayan and Popp (2010) and Enders and Lee (2012) Fourier ADF unit root tests, the causality relationship from the composite leading indicators to stock market indices are tested by employing Enders and Jones (2016) Fourier Granger causality test. The results support the evidence of a causality relationship from composite leading indicators to BIST100, BIST Financial and BIST Industrial Indexes under structural breaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Esra Nazmiye KILCI, 2020. "Forecasting Stock Market Indices with the Composite Leading Indicators: Evidence from Turkey," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(43).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:200107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Ali Murutoglu, 1999. "Leading Indicators Approach for Business Cycle Forecasting and a Study on Developing a Leading Economic Indicators Index for the Turkish Economy," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 3(9), pages 21-40.
    5. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
    6. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    7. C. Emre Alper, 2000. "Stylized Facts of Business Cycles, Excess Volatility and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Working Papers 2000/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:agr:journl:v:9(586):y:2013:i:9(586):p:51-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mert TOPCU & Ulas UNLU, 2013. "Do investors consider composite leading indicators? Time series evidence from emerging countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(9(586)), pages 51-62, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Composite Leading Indicators; Stock Market Indices; Structural Breaks.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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