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Determinanty i implikacje poszerzania strefy euro. Kwestia polska

Author

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  • Grzegorz W. Kołodko
  • Marta Postuła

Abstract

Abstrahując od Wielkiej Brytanii, która opuszcza Unię Europejską, wyłącznie Dania ma możliwość pozostawania poza obszarem wspólnej waluty europejskiej. Wszystkie pozostałe państwa członkowskie, które dotychczas nie wprowadziły do obiegu euro, mają takie traktatowe prawo i obowiązek. Warunkiem przystąpienia do strefy euro jest spełnienie wszystkich pięciu nominalnych kryteriów konwergencji z Maastricht oraz zgodność ustawodawstwa krajowego z acquis communautaire, czyli porządkiem prawnym obowiązującym w Unii Europejskiej. Szczególne trudności sprawia pretendentom kryterium fiskalne dotyczące maksymalnie dopuszczalnego deficytu budżetowego. Gdy nie jest ono przestrzegane, Komisja Europejska wdraża procedurę nadmiernego deficytu (EDP). Aktualnie procedura ta ma miejsce w przypadku Francji, Hiszpanii i Wielkiej Brytanii. W roku 2015 EDP została zdjęta z Polski, ale nie ma pewności, czy pod koniec dekady nie będzie ponownie nałożona, ze względu na ryzyko ponownego przekroczenia deficytu sektora finansów publicznych w wysokości 3 proc. PKB. W latach 20. XXI wieku można oczekiwać przystąpienia do europejskiej unii walutowej wszystkich krajów, które wciąż jeszcze posługują się swoimi narodowymi walutami, łącznie z Danią, oraz poszerzania UE o nowe państwa członkowskie, które będą poszerzały także strefę euro. Choć nie ma w tej kwestii stuprocentowej pewności, to trzeba przyjąć, że euro przetrwa obecne trudności i wyjdzie z nich wzmocnione. W artykule Autorzy postawili pytanie, czy Polska w najbliższych latach powinna przystąpić do strefy euro, zdając sobie z jednej strony sprawę z jej niedoskonałości, z drugiej zaś widząc pozytywne względy ekonomiczne takiej decyzji. Do weryfikacji empirycznej przedstawionego problemu badawczego wykorzystano metodykę mieszaną - zarówno badań jakościowych, jak i wyniki badań ilościowych.

Suggested Citation

  • Grzegorz W. Kołodko & Marta Postuła, 2018. "Determinanty i implikacje poszerzania strefy euro. Kwestia polska," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 5-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2018:i:2:p:5-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Wim Marneffe & Bas van Aarle & Wouter van der Wielen & Lode Vereeck, 2011. "The Impact of Fiscal Rules on Public Finances in the Euro Area," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(3), pages 18-26, October.
    4. Eswar S. Prasad, 2015. "The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 10182-2.
    5. Wim Marneffe & Bas Van Aarle & Wouter van der Wielen & Lode Vereeck, 2011. "The Impact of Fiscal Rules on Public Finances in the Euro Area," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(03), pages 18-26, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    integracja; euro konwergencja; kryteria z Maastricht; procedura nadmiernego deficytu; dług publiczny;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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