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The contagion effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on US tourism sector: Evidence from time-varying granger causality test

Author

Listed:
  • Oguzhan Cepni
  • Tarik Dogru
  • Ozgur Ozdemir

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on the overall stock market and the stock performance of the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors utilizing a novel time-varying robust Granger causality test. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic–induced uncertainty has an adverse impact on the overall economy, tourism and hospitality industry, and subsectors of tourism and hospitality. However, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic–induced uncertainty is more significant in the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors. In particular, hotels sector has experienced the largest impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by restaurants and airline sectors, respectively. Research and practical implications are discussed. JEL Classification: C1, C5, F2, G11, G17, G41

Suggested Citation

  • Oguzhan Cepni & Tarik Dogru & Ozgur Ozdemir, 2023. "The contagion effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on US tourism sector: Evidence from time-varying granger causality test," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 906-928, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:29:y:2023:i:4:p:906-928
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166221077633
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic; COVID-19; uncertainty; tourism; time-varying causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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