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Technique and Theory in Tourism Analysis

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  • Clive Morley

    (Graduate School of Business, RMIT University, GPO Box 2476V, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia)

Abstract

It is argued that, in much tourism research, there has been an over-concentration on technique and not enough concentration on tourism itself. The current practice of demand modelling in tourism does not sufficiently take into account some of the particular characteristics of tourism. Important variables and significant dynamics are routinely ignored. The practices of tourism analysis in other areas, such as strategy and time series modelling, face a similar criticism of applying general techniques to tourism data without sufficiently adapting them to important characteristics of tourism. From the argument, the following propositions are put forward: (a) the results from demand models incorporating seasonality and seasonal data will prove to be better guides for policy and strategy than models of annual data; (b) the results from demand models, estimated using weighted least squares or percentage error loss functions, will yield more robust results than the usual ordinary least squares (OLS) models; (c) discrete choice models will come to be preferred as more reliable than aggregated demand models; and (d) structural equations modelling will decline in use as its weaknesses become apparent.

Suggested Citation

  • Clive Morley, 2012. "Technique and Theory in Tourism Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(6), pages 1273-1286, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:18:y:2012:i:6:p:1273-1286
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2012.0173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yusuf Riza & Alan King, 2010. "Sun, sand and September 11: a model of tourism demand for the Maldives," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 223-238.
    2. M. Thea Sinclair, 1997. "Tourism and Economic Development: A Survey," Studies in Economics 9703, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. A. Özlem Önder & Aykan Candemir & Neşe Kumral, 2009. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of International Tourism Demand: The Case of Izmir," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1525-1533, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero & Juan de la Cruz Sánchez-Domínguez & Mª Cristina Rodríguez-Rangel, 2022. "Estimating the Probability of Visiting a Protected Natural Space and Its Conditioning Factors: The Case of the Monfragüe Biosphere Reserve (Spain)," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Egon Smeral, 2019. "Seasonal forecasting performance considering varying income elasticities in tourism demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 355-374, May.

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