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Use of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods to Model Cost-of-Illness Data

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  • Nicola J. Cooper
  • Alex J. Sutton
  • Miranda Mugford
  • Keith R. Abrams

Abstract

It is well known that the modeling of cost data is often problematic due to the distribution of such data. Commonly observed problems include 1) a strongly right-skewed data distribution and 2) a significant percentage of zero-cost observations. This article demonstrates how a hurdle model can be implemented from a Bayesian perspective by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation methods using the freely available software WinBUGS. Assessment of model fit is addressed through the implementation of two cross-validation methods. The relative merits of this Bayesian approach compared to the classical equivalent are discussed in detail. To illustrate the methods described, patient-specific nonhealth-care resource-use data from a prospective longitudinal study and the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) are utilized for 218 individuals with early inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). The NOAR database also includes information on various patient-level covariates.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola J. Cooper & Alex J. Sutton & Miranda Mugford & Keith R. Abrams, 2003. "Use of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods to Model Cost-of-Illness Data," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 23(1), pages 38-53, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:23:y:2003:i:1:p:38-53
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X02239653
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    Cited by:

    1. Pan, Chun & Cai, Bo & Wang, Lianming & Lin, Xiaoyan, 2014. "Bayesian semiparametric model for spatially correlated interval-censored survival data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 198-208.
    2. Andrea Gabrio & Michael J. Daniels & Gianluca Baio, 2020. "A Bayesian parametric approach to handle missing longitudinal outcome data in trial‐based health economic evaluations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(2), pages 607-629, February.
    3. Paul C. Lambert & Lucinda J. Billingham & Nicola J. Cooper & Alex J. Sutton & Keith R. Abrams, 2008. "Estimating the cost‐effectiveness of an intervention in a clinical trial when partial cost information is available: a Bayesian approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 67-81, January.
    4. Borislava Mihaylova & Andrew Briggs & Anthony O'Hagan & Simon G. Thompson, 2011. "Review of statistical methods for analysing healthcare resources and costs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 897-916, August.

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