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Interurban Migration and the Dynamics of a System of Cities: 1. The Stochastic Framework with an Application to the French Urban System

Author

Listed:
  • G Haag
  • M Munz
  • D Pumain

    (Institut National d'Études Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, F-75675 Paris, France)

  • L Sanders

    (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 13 rue du Four, F-75006 Paris, France)

  • Th Saint-Julien

    (University of Paris I, 13 rue du Four, F-75006 Paris, France)

Abstract

A stochastic framework for the modelling of interurban migration is presented. The model is an extension of a recently developed master-equation approach to interregional migration. The population dynamics of the French urban system, described by a set of 78 cities, is investigated within the period 1954–82. The importance of synergy effects (self-reinforcing collective effects) as well as socioeconomic macrovariables for the understanding of urban dynamics becomes obvious. A forecasting of urban dynamics (relative urban population, growth rates of the cities) for a closer period, year 2002, by using two different kinds of scenarios, confirm this result and give further insight into the nested structure of urban systems.

Suggested Citation

  • G Haag & M Munz & D Pumain & L Sanders & Th Saint-Julien, 1992. "Interurban Migration and the Dynamics of a System of Cities: 1. The Stochastic Framework with an Application to the French Urban System," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 24(2), pages 181-198, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:24:y:1992:i:2:p:181-198
    DOI: 10.1068/a240181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Camagni, Roberto & Diappi, Lidia & Leonardi, Giorgio, 1986. "Urban growth and decline in a hierarchical system A supply-oriented dynamic approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 145-160, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. H Haken & J Portugali, 1995. "A Synergetic Approach to the Self-Organization of Cities and Settlements," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 22(1), pages 35-46, February.
    2. Xin Lao & Tiyan Shen & Hengyu Gu, 2018. "Prospect on China’s Urban System by 2020: Evidence from the Prediction Based on Internal Migration Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, February.

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