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Some Models of Age-Specific Fertility Rates

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  • D B Pittenger

    (The Demographics Laboratory, 2065 Lakemoor Drive, Olympia, Washington 98502, USA)

Abstract

This report deals with age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) models from the perspective of their possible use in subnational population forecasting, as opposed to graduating empirical data. Gompertz, beta-1, Mazur, Coale–Trussell, and Page models are discussed first, with attention being paid to correspondence of functional elements to empirical ASFR component behavior. New functional models or descriptions of natural fertility rates, cumulative nuptiality proportions, deviations from natural fertility, and mean age at nuptiality for females of various marriage durations are then presented. Existing model elements and the new functional forms are combined into three new ASFR models. The report concludes with an evaluation of all the models.

Suggested Citation

  • D B Pittenger, 1980. "Some Models of Age-Specific Fertility Rates," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 12(10), pages 1145-1164, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:12:y:1980:i:10:p:1145-1164
    DOI: 10.1068/a121145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anonymous, 1969. "I. United Nations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 971-989, October.
    2. Edmund Murphy & Dhruva Nagnur, 1972. "A Gompertz fit that fits: Applications to canadian fertility patterns," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 9(1), pages 35-50, February.
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