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Forecasting conflict management in militarized interstate disputes

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  • Andrew P. Owsiak

Abstract

Is predicting the international community’s cumulative response to an interstate dispute possible? Can we predict what form conflict management will take and how it will evolve over the course of a dispute? I employ the concept of a conflict management trajectory to test a forecasting model of conflict management. This model accurately predicts conflict management behavior and uncovers numerous novel insights—including that the initial intervention indicates clearly the resources the international community is willing to spend on managing the dispute. These results confirm the need to theorize further about conflict management interdependence and offer clear advice to the policy community.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew P. Owsiak, 2015. "Forecasting conflict management in militarized interstate disputes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 50-75, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:32:y:2015:i:1:p:50-75
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894214545034
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