Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Promises and Pitfalls in the Spatial Prediction of Ethnic Violence

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nils B. Weidmann

    (Princeton University, USA)

  • Monica Duffy Toft

    (Harvard University, USA)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Despite increasing technical sophistication, the quantitative literature has made little progress in forecasting ethnic violence. Nevertheless, recent efforts in predicting the location of ethnic violence from the spatial ethnic distribution seem to be a major step forward. In 2007, Lim, Metzler, and Bar-Yam proposed an agent-based model that takes as input the ethnic map of a country and derives from it the predicted locations of ethnic violence. The model rests on the assumption that spatial group clusters of a certain critical size are most likely to display ethnic violence. Their model achieves a remarkable level of agreement between predicted and observed locations of violence. Our article scrutinizes this exercise. We show that their analysis suffers from a biased selection of groups and regions, and that the null hypothesis and unit of analysis are inadequate. The proclaimed usefulness of the model for predicting violence in new cases is made difficult by the fact that the model does not generalize from one case to another. We conclude that the model provides little advance on prior research.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://cmp.sagepub.com/content/27/2/159.abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Peace Science Society (International) in its journal Conflict Management and Peace Science.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 159-176

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:27:y:2010:i:2:p:159-176

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://pss.la.psu.edu/

    Related research

    Keywords: computational modeling; ethnic settlement patterns; ethnic violence; geographic information systems; spatial prediction;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:27:y:2010:i:2:p:159-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.