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Misleading Evidence and Evidence-Led Policy: Making Social Science more Experimental

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  • Lawrence W. Sherman

Abstract

Increasing demands by government for “evidence-led†policy raise the risk that research evidence will mis lead government rather than leading to an unbiased conclusion. The need for unbiased research conclusions has never been greater, yet few consumers of research understand the statistical biases with which science must always struggle. This article introduces the volume's discussion of those issues with an explanation of the major threats of bias in social science research and a map of the differing scientific opinions on how to deal with those threats. The thesis of the volume is that many of these threats could be reduced by making social science more experimental. The fact that even experimental evidence contains threats of bias does not alter that claim but merely suggests another: that educated consumers of social science may be the best defense against misleading evidence of all kinds.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence W. Sherman, 2003. "Misleading Evidence and Evidence-Led Policy: Making Social Science more Experimental," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 589(1), pages 6-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:589:y:2003:i:1:p:6-19
    DOI: 10.1177/0002716203256266
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    1. Herbert Turner & Robert Boruch & Anthony Petrosino & Julia Lavenberg & Dorothy de Moya & Hannah Rothstein, 2003. "Populating an International Web-Based Randomized Trials Register in the Social, Behavioral, Criminological, and Education Sciences," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 589(1), pages 203-223, September.
    2. Gerber, Alan S. & Green, Donald P., 2000. "The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(3), pages 653-663, September.
    3. David P. Farrington, 2003. "British Randomized Experiments on Crime and Justice," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 589(1), pages 150-167, September.
    4. Alan Gerber & Donald Green, 2000. "The effects of canvassing, direct mail, and telephone contact on voter turnout: A field experiment," Natural Field Experiments 00248, The Field Experiments Website.
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    1. Lawrence W. Sherman, 2003. "Experimental Evidence and Governmental Administration," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 589(1), pages 226-233, September.

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