Study On Romanian Regional Convergence Under The Impact Of The Health Crisis

The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on national economic activities are mainly negative and quantified in macro indicators such as GDP contraction, increase in the share of current expenditures in household incomes, increase in the number of unemployed (indicator targeting technical unemployment), increase in budget deficit and others. The current pandemic has generated direct costs in the economy, increasing the operational costs, and indirect costs: reduction of production capacity, change in the structure of private consumption and public consumption, too. Private consumption has shifted towards rising spending on food and a drastic reduction in spending on services. As positive effects, we can mention the acceleration of the digitization of activities and the reduction of inflation. This paper aimed at analysing the economic convergence process among the eight Romanian regions in period from 2012 to 2019 and during the pandemic crisis (after 2019). The sigma and beta coefficients of variation were determined, both, in terms of per capita gross regional product and the monthly gross average wage. Regional disparities, through sigma coefficient of variation, seem to have decreased slightly in the post-economic crisis period (2012 -2019) - except for 2015, but the forecasts for the period 2020-2024 confirm the tendency to accentuate them over the estimated period of the health crisis. The beta convergence was negative, but it was not statistically significant in any of our model. So, the concentration at regional level must be seen as a whole based on a set of indicators that address key aspects of economic and social life: education, health, the structure of activities and their contribution to economic growth and so on.