IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rom/merase/v6y2021i1p82-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Trade Wars Affect Exports of the Belt and Road Countries: New Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ayberk SEKER

    (Bursa Technical University, Turkey)

  • Oktay Kaan HÃœGÃœL

    (Bursa Technical University, Turkey)

Abstract

Globalization of the world affects the interests of the people continuously in the tendency of being shaped by the integrations geographic factors. By being different from the previous ages, the flow of information allows us today the integration of perception for needs and demands in common sense as a result of global approach, which has been leading to increase in speed of movement of commodities among economies. This increase and practically optimized logistics frameworks drastically reduced the challenge of physical movement of assets among far regions in globe. In our days, a new concept called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is being discussed and searching for participant economies to enlarge the volume of trade among Far East and Western Europe. Whereas the process of seeking for participants for BRI, the Trade Wars have been continuing among world’s leading economies to sustain domination roles over world trade volume. Considering that the effects of the trade wars between China and the USA on the Belt and Road Initiative have not been examined broadly until today, it is thought that this paper will make important contributions to the literature. As a result of Arellano-Bond (1991) and Arellano-Bover(1995) GMM estimators, it is determined that tariff rates of China is statistically significant and negative on the export of BRI countries whereas tariff rates of the USA does not have a statistically significant effect on these countries. In Addition, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality analyzes demonstrate that there are unidirectional causality relationships from tariff rates of China and USA to exports of the BRI countries. The empirical findings indicate that trade wars have a significant impact on exports of the BRI countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayberk SEKER & Oktay Kaan HÃœGÃœL, 2021. "How Trade Wars Affect Exports of the Belt and Road Countries: New Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Management and Economics Review, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 6(1), pages 82-98, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rom:merase:v:6:y:2021:i:1:p:82-98
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mer.ase.ro/files/2021-1/6-1-7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler & Jonathan Temple, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Papers 2001-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    4. Luciano Lopez & Sylvain Weber, 2017. "Testing for Granger causality in panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(4), pages 972-984, December.
    5. Anthony W. Chen & Jim Chen & V. Reddy Dondeti, 2020. "The US-China trade war: dominance of trade or technology?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(11), pages 904-909, June.
    6. Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 326-334, May.
    7. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    8. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    10. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    11. Li, Xiaojun, 2012. "China's geoeconomic strategy: China as a trading superpower," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 44204, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yongfu Huang, 2011. "Private investment and financial development in a globalized world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 43-56, August.
    2. Khan, Muhammad Atif & Gu, Lulu & Khan, Muhammad Asif & Oláh, Judit, 2020. "Natural resources and financial development: The role of institutional quality," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    3. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2023. "‘Investing’ in care for old age? An examination of long-term care expenditure dynamics and its spillovers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 1-30, January.
    4. Wesley Burnett, J. & Madariaga, Jessica, 2017. "The convergence of U.S. state-level energy intensity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-370.
    5. Das, Debasish Kumar, 2012. "Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 42419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ricardo R. Moreira, 2019. "Inflation and real exchange rate and macroeconomic gaps: causality for 50 emerging and developing countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 142-158.
    7. Daniel Weimar & Markus Schauberger, 2018. "The impact of sporting success on student enrollment," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(6), pages 731-764, August.
    8. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.
    9. Boukhatem, Jamel, 2016. "Assessing the direct effect of financial development on poverty reduction in a panel of low- and middle-income countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 214-230.
    10. Suleman Sarwar & Rida Waheed & Mehnoor Amir & Muqaddas Khalid, 2018. "Role of Energy on Economy The Case of Micro to Macro Level Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1905-1926.
    11. Vu, K.M., 2017. "Structural change and economic growth: Empirical evidence and policy insights from Asian economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 64-77.
    12. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    13. Le, Thai-Ha & Tran-Nam, Binh, 2018. "Relative costs and FDI: Why did Vietnam forge so far ahead?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Luis Ayala & Olga Cantó & Juan G. Rodríguez, 2017. "Poverty and the business cycle: A regional panel data analysis for Spain using alternative measures of unemployment," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(1), pages 47-73, March.
    15. Olalekan C. Okunlola & Olumide A. Ayetigbo & Sam O. Ajiye, 2022. "Does a free market system reduce conflict in Africa?," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 147-170, June.
    16. Marta Spreafico, 2013. "Institutions, the resource curse and the transition economies: further evidence," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica ispe0064, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    17. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    18. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Governance, capital flight and industrialisation in Africa," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Fernando Mayoral & Carlos Garcimartín, 2013. "The impact of population on the reduction of steady-state disparities across Spanish regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 50(1), pages 49-69, February.
    20. Zheng, Xinye & Li, Fanghua & Song, Shunfeng & Yu, Yihua, 2013. "Central government's infrastructure investment across Chinese regions: A dynamic spatial panel data approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 264-276.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Belt and Road Initiative; Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test; dynamic panel data; export; trade wars.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rom:merase:v:6:y:2021:i:1:p:82-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ciocoiu Nadia Carmen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnasero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.