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Factors that Affect Credit Rating: An Application of Ordered Probit Models

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  • Ken Hung

    ()
    (A.R. Sanchez School of Business, Texas A & M International University, Laredo, Texas, USA)

  • Hui Wen Cheng

    ()
    (Department of International Business, Ming Chuan University, Taipei, Taiwan, R. O. C.)

  • Shih-shen Chen

    ()
    (Department of International Business and Trade, Shu-Te University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, R. O.C.)

  • Ying-Chen Huang

    (Department of Economics, National Chung Cheng University, Chia-yi, Taiwan, R. O. C.)

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    Abstract

    Corporate credit ratings have become more important after the 2008 financial crisis. To explore the mystery, we employ the ordered probit regression models to examine the relationship between the credit rating and financial ratios in electric utilities, chemicals and communications equipment companies whose credits were rated by the S&P between 2006 and 2010 in North America. Consistent with prior research, we show that credit ratings are positively related to EBITDA interest coverage, return on assets and total assets while negatively related to debt ratio and cash to current liabilities ratio. Furthermore, we show that all the models over-predict the low rating categories while under-predict the high rating categories. The result of our model is among the best in terms of predictive power.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): (2013)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 94-108

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    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:4:p:94-108

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    Keywords: ordered probit regression model; credit rating; financial ratios; 2008 financial crisis; Standard&Poor;

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    References

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    1. W. Braddock Hickman, 1958. "Index to "Corporate Bond Quality and Investor Experience"," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Bond Quality and Investor Experience, pages 531-536 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
    3. Pinches, George E & Singleton, J Clay, 1978. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Bond Rating Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 29-44, March.
    4. Gentry, James A & Whitford, David T & Newbold, Paul, 1988. "Predicting Industrial Bond Ratings with a Probit Model and Funds Flow Components," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 269-86, August.
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    6. Ashbaugh-Skaife, Hollis & Collins, Daniel W. & LaFond, Ryan, 2006. "The effects of corporate governance on firms' credit ratings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 203-243, October.
    7. Kao, Chihwa & Wu, Chunchi, 1990. "Two-Step Estimation of Linear Models with Ordinal Unobserved Variables: The Case of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 317-25, July.
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    13. Ingram, Robert W & Brooks, Leroy D & Copeland, Ronald M, 1983. " The Information Content of Municipal Bond Rating Changes: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 997-1003, June.
    14. Grier, Paul & Katz, Steven, 1976. "The Differential Effects of Bond Rating Changes among Industrial and Public Utility Bonds by Maturity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 226-39, April.
    15. Sanjeev Bhojraj & Partha Sengupta, 2003. "Effect of Corporate Governance on Bond Ratings and Yields: The Role of Institutional Investors and Outside Directors," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 455-476, July.
    16. Eisenbeis, Robert A, 1977. "Pitfalls in the Application of Discriminant Analysis in Business, Finance, and Economics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 875-900, June.
    17. Pogue, Thomas F. & Soldofsky, Robert M., 1969. "What's in a Bond Rating," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 201-228, June.
    18. Kaplan, Robert S & Urwitz, Gabriel, 1979. "Statistical Models of Bond Ratings: A Methodological Inquiry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 231-61, April.
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