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Consideraciones sobre el nivel óptimo de reservas internacionales para Bolivia: 2003-2009

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  • Cerezo Aguirre, Sergio Cerezo Aguirre

    ()
    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

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    Abstract

    En los últimos años, Bolivia ha acumulado un nivel importante de reservas internacionales, debido a la favorable coyuntura externa y al régimen cambiario vigente (crawling peg). En ese contexto nace la interrogante de cuál es el nivel óptimo de reservas internacionales. Según los indicadores tradicionales de adecuación de reservas, y de acuerdo a un modelo que muestra el rol de las reservas como mitigadora de shocks externos adversos, las reservas óptimas se ubican por debajo de las efectivas constituidas en el banco central desde 2007. Este resultado se mantiene aun cuando se excluyen de las reservas efectivas el oro y los depósitos en moneda extranjera del sector público no financiero en el banco central. Sin embargo, un análisis de sensibilidad muestra que las reservas óptimas pueden incrementarse notablemente si cambian algunos fundamentos macroeconómicos.

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    File URL: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo/journal/articulos/LAJED%201402.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana in its journal Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico.

    Volume (Year): (2010)
    Issue (Month): 14 ()
    Pages: 41-70

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1402

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Universidad católica Boliviana San Pablo, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio Económicas, Av. 14 de septiembre 4807. Obrajes, La Paz, Bolivia
    Phone: (591-2) 784159
    Fax: (591-2) 786707
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    Web page: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo
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    Related research

    Keywords: Reservas internacionales; crisis en la balanza de pagos; dolarización;

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    1. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Liquidity Insurance in a Financially Dollarized Economy," NBER Working Papers 12345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies - How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund.
    3. David Hauner, 2005. "A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves," IMF Working Papers 05/81, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Wendell A. Samuel & Emilio Pineda & Mario Dehesa, 2009. "Optimal Reserves in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/77, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Holger Floerkemeier & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2008. "International Reserve Trends in the South Caucasus and Central Asia Region," IMF Working Papers 08/41, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2004. "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt88m6g98w, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2008. "International Reserves-Too Much of a Zipf's Thing," IMF Working Papers 08/11, International Monetary Fund.
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