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Potential Growth and Rebalancing in China

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Roberts

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Cai Fang

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract

In rapidly growing emerging economies such as China, it can be difficult to distinguish changes in long-term trends in growth from short-term macroeconomic cycles. This article provides a narrative account of recent phases in Chinese economic growth, and explores the role of cyclical and structural factors in shaping China’s recent growth performance. It reviews evidence documented by Lu and Cai (2014) suggesting that the slowing of GDP growth in recent years has resulted from a decline in the potential growth rate rather than being a cyclical downturn. The article emphasises the positive impact that reforms which raise labour force participation and productivity could have on the growth of potential output in China. It suggests that ‘rebalancing’ the economy’s demand from investment and exports towards consumption may not be sufficient to prevent a decline in potential growth but that, at a minimum, such rebalancing would probably be conducive to a more stable macroeconomic cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Roberts & Cai Fang, 2015. "Potential Growth and Rebalancing in China," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 29-38, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:jun2015-04
    as

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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/jun/pdf/bu-0615-4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. Justin Yifu Lin, 2011. "China and the global economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 213-229.
    3. Felipe, Jesus & Lanzafame, Matteo & Zhuang, Juzhong, 2014. "The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 418, Asian Development Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Anping & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2019. "China's ‘New Normal’: Is the growth slowdown demand- or supply-driven?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2019. "Regional resilience in China: The response of the provinces to the growth slowdown," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Partridge, Mark D. & Yang, Benjian & Chen, Anping, 2017. "Do Border Effects Alter Regional Development: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 82080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Guonan Ma & James Laurenceson, 2019. "China’S Debt Challenge: Stylized Facts, Drivers And Policy Implications," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(04), pages 815-837, September.
    5. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2019. "The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces: Disentangling the sources," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 1260-1279, December.
    6. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2017. "China’s ‘New Normal’: How will China’s growth slowdown affect Australia’s growth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 17-19, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

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