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Efecto del ciclo económico en la incidencia de la informalidad Evidencia para México, 1987-1999

Author

Listed:
  • José G. Aguilar Barceló

    (Universidad Autónoma de Baja California)

  • Carlos M. Hernández Campos

    (Universidad Autónoma de Baja California)

  • Martín A. Ramírez Urquidy

    (Universidad Autónoma de Baja California)

Abstract

Con datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Empleo Urbano se calculan aproximaciones a las probabilidades de transición entre distintos estados laborales en México para el periodo 1987-1999 a través de cadenas de Markov. Se encuentra que los niveles de informalidad están vinculados al ciclo económico. La subcontratación informal se ha convertido en una alternativa creciente de empleo siendo utilizada como refugio anticrisis. Además, mucha de la microempresarialidad informal podría ser considerada desempleo disfrazado siguiendo una visión dualista; no obstante un pequeño subconjunto de aquellos, tiene un comportamiento inverso, desarrollando empresarialidad de forma voluntaria y afín con la visión legalista. Es posible que este grupo sea el que tenga mayor potencialidad de formalización.

Suggested Citation

  • José G. Aguilar Barceló & Carlos M. Hernández Campos & Martín A. Ramírez Urquidy, 2010. "Efecto del ciclo económico en la incidencia de la informalidad Evidencia para México, 1987-1999," Economia y Sociedad., Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Facultad de Economia, issue 25, pages 91-109, Enero-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:qui:ecosoc:y:2010:i:25:p:91-109
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informalidad; tasa de desempleo; ciclo económico; probabilidad de transición; cadenas de Markov.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

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