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Les déterminants des prix des matières premières : une analyse économétrique

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  • Gérald Collange
  • François Guillaumat-Taillet
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    Abstract

    [fre] Depuis le début des années soixante-dix les changements de l'environnement international ont provoqué d'amples variations des prix des matières premières. Les pays en développement se retrouvent ainsi doublement en situation de dépendance : non seulement parce qu'une partie importante de leurs recettes d'exportations provient de la vente de produits primaires, mais encore parce qu'ils subissent la conjoncture mondiale plus qu'ils ne l'influencent en raison de leur poids modéré dans l'activité totale. Nous avons tenté de mesurer l'impact des fluctuations de l'économie mondiale sur les cours des biens primaires non pétroliers exportés par les PVD de 1973 à 1987. L'activité économique des pays industriels — principaux importateurs de ces produits — et les variations du taux de change réel du dollar, qui sont les déterminants essentiels de la demande de produits primaires, rendent compte de manière satisfaisante de l'évolution de l'indice général des prix. L'influence de la variation des taux d'intérêt sur les prix, via les comportements de stockage, est confirmée par l'étude économétrique. L'analyse par grandes catégories de produits primaires donne de bons résultats concernant le prix des matières premières agricoles et minières, très sensible aux évolutions de la demande, alors que les estimations faites sur le prix des produits alimentaires ne sont pas satisfaisantes, ces produits dépendant davantage des conditions de l'offre. [eng] The Determinants of Primary Commodity Prices: An Econometric Analysis Gérald Collange, François Guillaumat-Tailliet Since the early seventies the changes in the world environment have induced major variations in the prices of primary commodities. Hence the developing countries find themselves in a state of dépendance for two reasons. Not only does the main part of their export earnings come from the sale of primary products, but also their modest weight in world activity means that they are subject to the state of the world economy far more than they can exert an influence on it. This paper attempts to measure the impact of world economic fluctuations on the prices of non-oil primary commodities exported by LDC's from 1973 to 1987. Economic activity in industrial countries — the main importers of these commodities — and changes in the dollar real exchange rate, which are the principal factors underlying the demand for primary commodities, account adequately for the movements in the overall price index. Our econometric study confirms the influence of changes in interest rates on prices, through inventory holdings. The analysis of the main commodity groups provides good results for the prices of agricultural raw materials and metals, which are both very sensitive to changes in demand, but the estimation results for the prices of food and beverages are not satisfactory, these commodities depending much more on supply-side factors.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1988.1156
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ofce_0751-6614_1988_num_25_1_1156/ofce_0751-6614_1988_num_25_1_1156.pdf?mode=light
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 25 (1988)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 145-171

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1988_num_25_1_1156

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1988.1156
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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