Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen
Abstract[fre] La réorientation des échanges des pays en transition vers l'Union européenne pose deux questions. Les niveaux d'échanges déjà atteints seront-ils dépassés ? Comment le degré de spécialisation va-t-il évoluer ? Les modèles de gravitation en panel apportent des réponses. Le potentiel de commerce de court terme est déjà rempli pour plusieurs pays. À moyen terme, l'accession devrait avoir un effet limité et asymétrique sur les échanges, au détriment des pays en transition. L'accession aura surtout pour effet de modifier la nature du commerce, au bénéfice des échanges intra-branche de produits différenciés verticalement. À plus long terme, une fois les ajustements structurels effectués, le commerce pourrait augmenter dans des proportions importantes. [eng] The changing patterns of CEECs' external trade flows raise two questions. First, has the trade potential with Europe already been exhausted? Second, how will the degree of specialisation change in the future? Gravity models estimated using panel data provide answers to both questions. The short-term trade potential is largely exhausted for numerous countries. The perspective of enlargement of the EU will be associated with only a slight additional asymmetric increase in trade flows, detrimental to the CEECs. However, trade types will change in depth as a result of the future enlargement. The share of intra-industry trade in vertically differentiated products will be boosted, while inter-industry trade will shrink. In the long run however, all structural adjustments being completed, trade flows could increase in larger proportions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.
Volume (Year): 50 (1999)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco
Other versions of this item:
- Michael Freudenberg & Michaël Pajot & Lionel Fontagné, 1999. "Le potentiel d'échanges entre l'Union européenne et les PECO. Un réexamen," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 1139-1168.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Cheptea, Angela, 2011.
"Border Effects and European Integration,"
47009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2003.
"Extending the EU Single Market Eastwards: Sectoral Trade and Real Wage Effects,"
Discussion Paper Series
2003_10, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Oct 2003.
- Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2004. "Extending The EU Single Market Eastwards: Sectoral Trade And Real Wage Effects," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 127, Royal Economic Society.
- Jože P. Damijan & José De Sousa & Olivier Lamotte, 2006. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization in South-Eastern European Countries," The wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 070, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Angela Cheptea, 2010. "Border Effects and East-West Integration," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 201015, INRA UMR SMART.
- Andres Faiña & Jesus Lopez-Rodríguez, 2003. "Population Potentials and Development Levels: Empirical Findings in the European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa03p30, European Regional Science Association.
- Sophie Chauvin, 2001. "Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade," Working Papers 2001-07, CEPII research center.
- J. Caetano & A. Galego & E. Vaz & C. Vieira & I. Vieira, 2002. "The Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone: Trade and FDI," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp07, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
- Leandro Rothmuller, 2003. "Does FDI Matter for Trade in Brazil? An Application of the Gravity Model," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c71, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Disdier, Anne-Celia & Mayer, Thierry, 2004.
"How different is Eastern Europe? Structure and determinants of location choices by French firms in Eastern and Western Europe,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 280-296, June.
- Anne-Celia Disdier & Thierry Mayer, 2003. "How Different is Eastern Europe? Structure and Determinants of Location Choices by French Firms in Eastern and Western Europe," Working Papers 2003-13, CEPII research center.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.