Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Sensibilités des taux de change d'équilibre aux output gaps et aux cibles de la balance courante

Contents:

Author Info

  • Florence Thibault
  • Cécile Couharde
  • Didier Borowski

Abstract

[eng] Sensitivities of equilibrium exchange rates to output gaps and current-account balance targets. Methodology and . estimates for the main industrialized countries . by Didier Borowski, Cécile Couharde and Florence Thibault . Following the research initiated by the IMF in the 1970s, John Williamson defined the concept of fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) as the real effective exchange rate that enables an economy to achieve two simultaneous goals in the medium term: internal equilibrium (i.e., a non-accelerating-inflation growth path) and external equilibrium (i.e., a "sustainable" current-account balance). . The aim of this article is to estimate FEERs for the main industrialized countries (G7 + Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain) over the period 1984-95. To obtain these estimates, we constructed a static model based on the long-term specifications of the National Institute Global Economic Model (NIGEM). Our approach is partly inspired by the work of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) but departs from it to the extent that we assume internal equilibrium to be exogenous. . The main determinants of FEERs are the current-account balance targets and potential GDP growth rates — which define the external and internal equilibriums respectively. Given their high normative content, the values we assign to both determinants are essentially intended as notional examples. . Our method for resolving the long-term model offers two major advantages: (1) We directly obtain bilateral equilibrium parities from which we calculate the real effective exchange rates. (2) We demonstrate the sensitivity of exchange rates to deviations from current-account balance targets and to output gaps. This approach thus allows a more accurate measurement of currency over- or undervaluation . [fre] Sensibilités des taux de change d'équilibre aux output gaps et aux cibles de balance courante. Méthodologie et . estimation pour les grands pays industrialisés . Didier Borowski, Cécile Couharde et Florence Thibault . À la suite des travaux initiés par le Fonds monétaire international dans les années soixante-dix, John Williamson définit le concept de taux de change d'équilibre fondamental comme le taux de change effectif réel assurant à moyen terme qu'une économie réalise simultanément son équilibre interne (correspondant au sentier de croissance non accélérateur d'inflation) et son équilibre externe (le solde de la balance courante est dit "soutenable"). . L'objet de cet article est d'évaluer les taux de change d'équilibre fondamentaux des principaux pays industrialisés (G7, Espagne, Belgique et Pays-Bas) sur la période 1984-1995. Pour procéder à ces estimations, nous développons une maquette statique qui repose sur les spécifications de long terme du modèle multinational Nigem (National Institute 's Global Econometric Model). Notre démarche s'inspire en partie des travaux menés au sein du NIESR (Nationale Institute of Economie and Social Research) mais s'en éloigne dans la mesure où l'équilibre interne est ici supposé exogène. . Les cibles de balances courantes et les rythmes de croissance potentielle - définissant respectivement les équilibres externe et interne - sont au cœur de la détermination des taux de change d'équilibre fondamentaux. Dans la mesure où ils présentent un contenu normatif important, les valeurs retenues pour chacun de ces éléments sont avant tout proposées à titre d'illustration. . Notre méthode de résolution de la maquette de long terme présente plusieurs avantages. D'une part nous obtenons directement des parités bilatérales d'équilibre à partir desquelles sont calculés les taux de change effectifs réels. D'autre part, nous mettons en évidence la sensibilité des taux de change aux écarts aux cibles de balances courantes et aux output gaps. Cette démarche autorise de ce fait un diagnostic plus précis concernant la surévaluation ou la sous-évaluation des monnaies.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.1998.5918
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ecop_0249-4744_1998_num_134_3_5918/ecop_0249-4744_1998_num_134_3_5918.pdf?mode=light
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 134 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 71-96

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1998_num_134_3_5918

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1998.5918
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Lendjoungou, Francis, 2009. "Competitiveness and the real exchange rate: the standpoint of countries in the CEMAC zone," MPRA Paper 17053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Why the Euro will be Strong: an Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1997-18, CEPII research center.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1998_num_134_3_5918. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.