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Peníze a inflace: ztracená kointegrace
[Money and Inflation: Lost Cointegration]

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  • Aleš Michl

Abstract

Using a cointegration, we show that there is no long-term relationship between money in the economy M and real (and nominal) GDP and CPI (US data from 1959 to 2018). There is no empirical evidence to support the textbook claim that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Only when we shorten the time series to the period before the crisis (1959-2008), there is a cointegration between CPI and M2, but only at the 10% significance level and only according to one of two co-integration tests. The relationship that existed before the crisis either had to fall apart or change. There are three possible explanations: (1) The growth of M in low-inflation economies (CPI below 10% annually) is distributed more equally between CPI and real GDP than in the event of significant changes in M. (2) The falling velocity of money after the crisis of 2008/2009. (3) The last possibility is an increase in the adequacy problem of inflation - the CPI does not adequately reflect the economic definition of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleš Michl, 2019. "Peníze a inflace: ztracená kointegrace [Money and Inflation: Lost Cointegration]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 385-405.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2019:y:2019:i:4:id:1255:p:385-405
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1255
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; quantity theory of money; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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