An Application of the Garch-t Model on Central European Stock Returns
AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the time-series and distributional properties of Central European stock returns. We test the random walk hypothesis and then consider an alternative to random walk - the ARIMA model for stock prices. The behavior of volatility of returns over time is studied using the GARCH-t model which also allows us to learn more about the distribution properties of stock returns. We employ the BDS test to assess the ability of the estimated GARCH-t model to capture all nonlinearities in stock returns. Our empirical findings reveal that the Czech and Hungarian stock market indices are predictable from the time series of historical prices, whereas that of Poland is not. The returns on all three indices are conditionally heteroskedastic and non-normal. The estimated number of degrees of freedom ranges from 18 to 4.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 2004 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Postal: Editorial office Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
- Connolly, Robert A., 1989. "An Examination of the Robustness of the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 133-169, June.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1991.
"An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading,"
NBER Working Papers
2960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, . "An Econometric Analysis of Nonsyschronous-Trading," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989.
"Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test,"
NBER Working Papers
2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vaclav Subrta).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.