IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0266963.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Associations between components of household expenditures and the rate of change in the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan: Time-series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hajime Tomura

Abstract

Background: Social distancing measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 included restrictions on retail services in many countries. In some countries, the governments also subsidized consumer spending on part of retail services to help struggling businesses. To evaluate the costs and benefits of government interventions in retail services, it is necessary to measure the infectiousness of each type of consumer activity. Methods: This study regresses the log difference over seven days in the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan on lagged values of household expenditures per household on eating out, traveling, admissions to entertainment facilities, clothing and footwear, and the other items, as well as a measure of mobility in public transportation in the past 14 days. The sample period of the dependent variable is set from March 1, 2020, to February 1, 2021, in order to avoid a possible structural break due to the spread of mutant strains in 2021. The regression model is estimated by the Bayesian method with a non-informative (improper) prior. The estimated model is evaluated by out-of-sample forecast performance from February 2, 2021, onward. Results: The out-of-sample forecasts of the regression by the posterior means of regression coefficients perform well before the spread of the Delta variant in Japan since June 2021. R2 for the out-of-sample forecasts from February 2, 2021, to June 30, 2021, is 0.60. The dependent variable of the regression overshot the out-of-sample forecasts from mid-June to August 2021. Then, the out-of-sample forecasts overpredicted the dependent variable for the rest of 2021. Conclusion: The estimated model can be potentially useful in simulating changes in the number of new confirmed cases due to household spending on retail services, if it can be adjusted to real-time developments of mutant strains and vaccinations. Such simulations would help in designing cost-efficient government interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hajime Tomura, 2022. "Associations between components of household expenditures and the rate of change in the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan: Time-series analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(4), pages 1-33, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0266963
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0266963
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0266963
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0266963&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0266963?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ping-Chen Chung & Ta-Chien Chan, 2021. "Impact of physical distancing policy on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 globally: Perspective from government’s response and residents’ compliance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    3. Seth Flaxman & Swapnil Mishra & Axel Gandy & H. Juliette T. Unwin & Thomas A. Mellan & Helen Coupland & Charles Whittaker & Harrison Zhu & Tresnia Berah & Jeffrey W. Eaton & Mélodie Monod & Azra C. Gh, 2020. "Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 257-261, August.
    4. Yoshiyuki Sugishita & Junko Kurita & Tamie Sugawara & Yasushi Ohkusa, 2020. "Effects of voluntary event cancellation and school closure as countermeasures against COVID-19 outbreak in Japan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-10, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yasuhiro Kawano & Ryusuke Matsumoto & Eishi Motomura & Takashi Shiroyama & Motohiro Okada, 2022. "Bidirectional Causality between Spreading COVID-19 and Individual Mobilisation with Consumption Motives across Prefectural Borders in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-17, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Andy Hong & Sandip Chakrabarti, 2023. "Compact living or policy inaction? Effects of urban density and lockdown on the COVID-19 outbreak in the US," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(9), pages 1588-1609, July.
    3. Foliano, Francesca & Tonei, Valentina & Sevilla, Almudena, 2022. "Social Restrictions and Well-Being: Disentangling the Mechanisms," IZA Discussion Papers 15734, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Liu, Shasha & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki, 2022. "Role of stay-at-home requests and travel restrictions in preventing the spread of COVID-19 in Japan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1-16.
    5. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Margarete Redlin, 2023. "The effectiveness of vaccination, testing, and lockdown strategies against COVID-19," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 585-607, December.
    6. Sen, Anindya & Baker, John David & Zhang, Qihuang & Agarwal, Rishav Raj & Lam, Jean-Paul, 2023. "Do more stringent policies reduce daily COVID-19 case counts? Evidence from Canadian provinces," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 225-242.
    7. Judit Temesvary & Andrew Wei, 2021. "Domestic Lending and the Pandemic: How Does Banks' Exposure to Covid-19 Abroad Affect Their Lending in the United States?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-056r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 17 Nov 2021.
    8. Jacqueline Ruth & Steffen Willwacher & Oliver Korn, 2022. "Acceptance of Digital Sports: A Study Showing the Rising Acceptance of Digital Health Activities Due to the SARS-CoV-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Hannah Carver & Tracey Price & Danilo Falzon & Peter McCulloch & Tessa Parkes, 2022. "Stress and Wellbeing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Mixed-Methods Exploration of Frontline Homelessness Services Staff Experiences in Scotland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    11. Emanuele Amodio & Michele Battisti & Antonio Francesco Gravina & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Giuseppe Maggio, 2023. "School‐age vaccination, school openings and Covid‐19 diffusion," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1084-1100, May.
    12. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    13. Joël Cariolle & Florian Léon, 2022. "How internet helped firms to cope with COVID-19," Working Papers hal-03592617, HAL.
    14. Aldo Carranza & Marcel Goic & Eduardo Lara & Marcelo Olivares & Gabriel Y. Weintraub & Julio Covarrubia & Cristian Escobedo & Natalia Jara & Leonardo J. Basso, 2022. "The Social Divide of Social Distancing: Shelter-in-Place Behavior in Santiago During the Covid-19 Pandemic," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2016-2027, March.
    15. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. H. Peter Boswijk & Roger J. A. Laeven & Evgenii Vladimirov, 2022. "Estimating Option Pricing Models Using a Characteristic Function-Based Linear State Space Representation," Papers 2210.06217, arXiv.org.
    17. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade disruptions along the global supply chain," Discussion Papers 2023-06, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    18. Khan, Nawab Ali & Azhar, Mohd & Rahman, Mohd Nayyer & Akhtar, Mohd Junaid, 2022. "Scale development and validation for usage of social networking sites during COVID-19," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Yekaterina Chzhen & Jennifer Symonds & Dympna Devine & Júlia Mikolai & Susan Harkness & Seaneen Sloan & Gabriela Martinez Sainz, 2022. "Learning in a Pandemic: Primary School children’s Emotional Engagement with Remote Schooling during the spring 2020 Covid-19 Lockdown in Ireland," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 15(4), pages 1517-1538, August.
    20. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal & Wookun Kim & Cristiano Mantovani & Edouard Schaal, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 503-522, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0266963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.