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Lives saved and lost in the first six month of the US COVID-19 pandemic: A retrospective cost-benefit analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Yakusheva
  • Eline van den Broek-Altenburg
  • Gayle Brekke
  • Adam Atherly

Abstract

In the beginning of the COVID-19 US epidemic in March 2020, sweeping lockdowns and other aggressive measures were put in place and retained in many states until end of August of 2020; the ensuing economic downturn has led many to question the wisdom of the early COVID-19 policy measures in the US. This study’s objective was to evaluate the cost and benefit of the US COVID-19-mitigating policy intervention during the first six month of the pandemic in terms of COVID-19 mortality potentially averted, versus mortality potentially attributable to the economic downturn. We conducted a synthesis-based retrospective cost-benefit analysis of the full complex of US federal, state, and local COVID-19-mitigating measures, including lockdowns and all other COVID-19-mitigating measures, against the counterfactual scenario involving no public health intervention. We derived parameter estimates from a rapid review and synthesis of recent epidemiologic studies and economic literature on regulation-attributable mortality. According to our estimates, the policy intervention saved 866,350–1,711,150 lives (4,886,214–9,650,886 quality-adjusted life-years), while mortality attributable to the economic downturn was 57,922–245,055 lives (2,093,811–8,858,444 life-years). We conclude that the number of lives saved by the spring-summer lockdowns and other COVID-19-mitigation was greater than the number of lives potentially lost due to the economic downturn. However, the net impact on quality-adjusted life expectancy is ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Yakusheva & Eline van den Broek-Altenburg & Gayle Brekke & Adam Atherly, 2022. "Lives saved and lost in the first six month of the US COVID-19 pandemic: A retrospective cost-benefit analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0261759
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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