IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0229178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential reduction of Hartweg´s Pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) geographic distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Farid Uriel Alfaro-Ramírez
  • Jorge Enrique Ramírez-Albores
  • J Jesús Vargas-Hernández
  • Sergio Franco-Maass
  • Marlín Pérez-Suárez

Abstract

Geographical distribution of forest species is closely regulated by environmental conditions, particularly temperature and precipitation. Climate change predicted by general circulation models is expected to modify the distribution of many species’ distribution, especially those adapted to extreme environmental conditions, leading to large-scale migrations or local extinctions. The aim of this research was to determine the potential impact of climatic change on Pinus hartwegii geographic distribution and the niche breadth of its populations. Ecological niche models were used by generated with four different algorithms based on 19 bioclimatic variables in addition to altitude. Climatic niche breadth was delimited by the dispersion of species occurrence records within the intervals of the bioclimatic variables. We modelled future distribution based on three general circulation models, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES, using two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5, for two-time horizons 2050 and 2070. Niche breadth analysis showed narrow ranges of suitability, indicating a strong relationship between the presence of P. hartwegii with the temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the coldest quarter. In addition, the suitability area of P. hartwegii is predicted to be reduced up to 70% by 2070; the populations of the extreme northern and southern latitudes will be reduced in greater proportion than those of central Mexico. This suggest that environmental suitability area of P. hartwegii are reduced by the effect of the increase in environmental temperature. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor extreme populations of this species in the long term in order to establish efficient conservation strategies and well adaptive management facing climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Farid Uriel Alfaro-Ramírez & Jorge Enrique Ramírez-Albores & J Jesús Vargas-Hernández & Sergio Franco-Maass & Marlín Pérez-Suárez, 2020. "Potential reduction of Hartweg´s Pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) geographic distribution," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0229178
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229178
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0229178
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0229178&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0229178?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wilfried Thuiller & Sébastien Lavergne & Cristina Roquet & Isabelle Boulangeat & Bruno Lafourcade & Miguel. B. Araujo, 2011. "Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7335), pages 531-534, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duque-Lazo, J. & van Gils, H. & Groen, T.A. & Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M., 2016. "Transferability of species distribution models: The case of Phytophthora cinnamomi in Southwest Spain and Southwest Australia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 62-70.
    2. Aldo Rafael Martínez-Sifuentes & José Antonio Hernández-Herrera & Luis Manuel Valenzuela-Núñez & Edwin Amir Briceño-Contreras & Ulises Manzanilla-Quiñones & Argel Gastélum-Arellánez & Ramón Trucíos-Ca, 2022. "Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco in Mexico: An Approach for Its Conservation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Chiu, Mei-Shiu, 2013. "Tensions in implementing the “energy-conservation/carbon-reduction” policy in Taiwanese culture," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 415-425.
    4. Pliscoff, Patricio & Luebert, Federico & Hilger, Hartmut H. & Guisan, Antoine, 2014. "Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: A test with plants in an arid environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 166-177.
    5. Fernández-González, Raquel & Puime-Guillén, Félix & Panait, Mirela, 2022. "Multilevel governance, PV solar energy, and entrepreneurship: the generation of green hydrogen as a fuel of renewable origin," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Maria Triviño & Wilfried Thuiller & Mar Cabeza & Thomas Hickler & Miguel B Araújo, 2011. "The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(12), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Arne Strid & Thomas Raus & Panayotis Dimopoulos, 2021. "Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    8. Alba Estrada & M Paula Delgado & Beatriz Arroyo & Juan Traba & Manuel B Morales, 2016. "Forecasting Large-Scale Habitat Suitability of European Bustards under Climate Change: The Role of Environmental and Geographic Variables," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, March.
    9. Yanqin Zhang & Enming Ye & Fan Liu & Ningjing Lai & Xianli You & Jianwen Dong & Jiaying Dong, 2023. "The Relationship between Landscape Construction and Bird Diversity: A Bibliometric Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Nicolas Casajus & Catherine Périé & Travis Logan & Marie-Claude Lambert & Sylvie de Blois & Dominique Berteaux, 2016. "An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0229178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.