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Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models

Author

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  • Shyam Ranganathan
  • Stamatios C Nicolis
  • Ranjula Bali Swain
  • David J T Sumpter

Abstract

The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Shyam Ranganathan & Stamatios C Nicolis & Ranjula Bali Swain & David J T Sumpter, 2017. "Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0171560
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171560
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Vandemoortele, 2009. "The MDG Conundrum: Meeting the Targets Without Missing the Point," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 27(4), pages 355-371, July.
    2. David Hulme, 2007. "The Making of the Millennium Development Goals: Human Development Meets Results based Management In an Imperfect World," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 1607, GDI, The University of Manchester.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dawes, J.H.P., 2022. "SDG interlinkage networks: Analysis, robustness, sensitivities, and hierarchies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Alkire, Sabina & Nogales, Ricardo & Quinn, Natalie Naïri & Suppa, Nicolai, 2023. "On track or not? Projecting the global Multidimensional Poverty Index," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    3. Bali Swain, Ranjula & Ranganathan, Shyam, 2021. "Modeling interlinkages between sustainable development goals using network analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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