IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0063959.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Current and Future Disease Progression of the Chronic HCV Population in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Zalesak
  • Kevin Francis
  • Alex Gedeon
  • John Gillis
  • Kyle Hvidsten
  • Phyllis Kidder
  • Hong Li
  • Derek Martyn
  • Leslie Orne
  • Amanda Smith
  • Ann Kwong

Abstract

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can lead to advanced liver disease (AdvLD), including cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, and liver cancer. The aim of this study was to determine recent historical rates of HCV patient progression to AdvLD and to project AdvLD prevalence through 2015. We first determined total 2008 US chronic HCV prevalence from the National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Surveys. Next, we examined disease progression and associated non-pharmacological costs of diagnosed chronic HCV-infected patients between 2007–2009 in the IMS LifeLink and CMS Medicare claims databases. A projection model was developed to estimate AdvLD population growth through 2015 in patients diagnosed and undiagnosed as of 2008, using the 2007–2009 progression rates to generate a “worst case” projection of the HCV-related AdvLD population (i.e., scenario where HCV treatment is the same in the forecasted period as it was before 2009). We found that the total diagnosed chronic HCV population grew from 983,000 to 1.19 million in 2007–2009, with patients born from 1945–1964 accounting for 75.0% of all patients, 83.7% of AdvLD patients, and 79.2% of costs in 2009, indicating that HCV is primarily a disease of the “baby boomer” population. Non-pharmacological costs grew from $7.22 billion to $8.63 billion, with the majority of growth derived from the 60,000 new patients that developed AdvLD in 2007–2009, 91.5% of whom were born between 1945 and 1964. The projection model estimated the total AdvLD population would grow from 195,000 in 2008 to 601,000 in 2015, with 73.5% of new AdvLD cases from patients undiagnosed as of 2008. AdvLD prevalence in patients diagnosed as of 2008 was projected to grow 6.5% annually to 303,000 patients in 2015. These findings suggest that strategies to diagnose and treat HCV-infected patients are urgently needed to increase the likelihood that progression is interrupted, particularly for patients born from 1945–1964.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Zalesak & Kevin Francis & Alex Gedeon & John Gillis & Kyle Hvidsten & Phyllis Kidder & Hong Li & Derek Martyn & Leslie Orne & Amanda Smith & Ann Kwong, 2013. "Current and Future Disease Progression of the Chronic HCV Population in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-10, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0063959
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0063959
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0063959
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0063959&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0063959?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wong, J.B. & McQuillan, G.M. & McHutchison, J.G. & Poynard, T., 2000. "Estimating future hepatitis C morbidity, mortality, and costs in the United States," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(10), pages 1562-1569.
    2. Tomaszewski, K.J. & Deniz, B. & Tomanovich, P. & Graham, C.S., 2012. "Comparison of current US risk strategy to screen for hepatitis C virus with a hypothetical targeted birth cohort strategy," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(11), pages 101-106.
    3. S. Deuffic-Burban & T. Poynard & M.S. Sulkowski & J.B. Wong, 2007. "Estimating the future health burden of chronic hepatitis C and human immunodeficiency virus infections in the United States," Post-Print hal-00199768, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Susie El Saadany & Douglas Coyle & Antonio Giulivi & Mohammad Afzal, 2005. "Economic burden of hepatitis C in Canada and the potential impact of prevention," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 6(2), pages 159-165, June.
    2. Robert L. Herrick & Steven G. Buchberger & Robert M. Clark & Margaret Kupferle & Regan Murray & Paul Succop, 2012. "A Markov Model To Estimate Salmonella Morbidity, Mortality, Illness Duration, And Cost," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 1169-1182, October.
    3. Teresa Kauf & Ateesha Mohamed & A. Hauber & Derek Fetzer & Atiya Ahmad, 2012. "Patients’ Willingness to Accept the Risks and Benefits of New Treatments for Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection," The Patient: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research, Springer;International Academy of Health Preference Research, vol. 5(4), pages 265-278, December.
    4. Anne Grogan & Fiona Timmins, 2010. "Patients’ perceptions of information and support received from the nurse specialist during HCV treatment," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(19‐20), pages 2869-2878, October.
    5. Sobhani, A. & Wahab, M.I.M. & Jaber, M.Y., 2019. "The effect of working environment aspects on a vendor–buyer inventory model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 171-183.
    6. Uwe Siebert & Gaby Sroczynski & Jürgen Wasem & Wolfgang Greiner & Ulrike Ravens-Sieberer & Pamela Aidelsburger & Bärbel Kurth & Monika Bullinger & J.-Matthias Schulenburg & John Wong & Siegbert Rossol, 2005. "Using competence network collaboration and decision-analytic modeling to assess the cost-effectiveness of interferon α-2b plus ribavirin as initial treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Germany," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 6(2), pages 112-123, June.
    7. Craig Arthur Gallet, 2017. "The Impact of Public Health Spending on California STD Rates," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(2), pages 149-159, May.
    8. Ebere Akobundu & Jing Ju & Lisa Blatt & C. Mullins, 2006. "Cost-of-Illness Studies," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 869-890, September.
    9. Anita J Brogan & Sandra E Talbird & James R Thompson & Jeffrey D Miller & Jaime Rubin & Baris Deniz, 2014. "Cost-effectiveness of Telaprevir Combination Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis C," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-11, March.
    10. Uwe Siebert, 2003. "When should decision-analytic modeling be used in the economic evaluation of health care?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 4(3), pages 143-150, September.
    11. Yanxia Wang & Qingyun Du & Fu Ren & Shi Liang & De-nan Lin & Qin Tian & Yan Chen & Jia-jia Li, 2014. "Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-26, May.
    12. Francesco Brizzi & Paul J. Birrell & Martyn T. Plummer & Peter Kirwan & Alison E. Brown & Valerie C. Delpech & O. Noel Gill & Daniela Angelis, 2019. "Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 757-780, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0063959. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.