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Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Brizzi

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Paul J. Birrell

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Martyn T. Plummer

    (IARC)

  • Peter Kirwan

    (Public Health England)

  • Alison E. Brown

    (Public Health England)

  • Valerie C. Delpech

    (Public Health England)

  • O. Noel Gill

    (Public Health England)

  • Daniela Angelis

    (University of Cambridge
    Public Health England)

Abstract

CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions. We investigate, through simulation studies, the suitability of various bivariate splines for the non-parametric modelling of the latent age- and time-specific incidence and illustrate our method on routinely collected data from the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men in England and Wales.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Brizzi & Paul J. Birrell & Martyn T. Plummer & Peter Kirwan & Alison E. Brown & Valerie C. Delpech & O. Noel Gill & Daniela Angelis, 2019. "Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 757-780, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lifeda:v:25:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10985-019-09465-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10985-019-09465-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ørnulf Borgan & Håkon K. Gjessing, 2019. "Special issue dedicated to Odd O. Aalen," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 587-592, October.

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