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Optimizing Topological Cascade Resilience Based on the Structure of Terrorist Networks

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  • Alexander Gutfraind

Abstract

Complex socioeconomic networks such as information, finance and even terrorist networks need resilience to cascades - to prevent the failure of a single node from causing a far-reaching domino effect. We show that terrorist and guerrilla networks are uniquely cascade-resilient while maintaining high efficiency, but they become more vulnerable beyond a certain threshold. We also introduce an optimization method for constructing networks with high passive cascade resilience. The optimal networks are found to be based on cells, where each cell has a star topology. Counterintuitively, we find that there are conditions where networks should not be modified to stop cascades because doing so would come at a disproportionate loss of efficiency. Implementation of these findings can lead to more cascade-resilient networks in many diverse areas.

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  • Alexander Gutfraind, 2010. "Optimizing Topological Cascade Resilience Based on the Structure of Terrorist Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-7, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0013448
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0013448
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    1. Bier, Vicki & Gutfraind, Alexander, 2019. "Risk analysis beyond vulnerability and resilience – characterizing the defensibility of critical systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 626-636.
    2. Yiping Fang & Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio, 2015. "Optimization of Cascade‐Resilient Electrical Infrastructures and its Validation by Power Flow Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 594-607, April.
    3. Annamaria Ficara & Francesco Curreri & Giacomo Fiumara & Pasquale De Meo & Antonio Liotta, 2022. "Covert Network Construction, Disruption, and Resilience: A Survey," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-43, August.
    4. Mary F. McGuire, 2014. "Pancreatic Cancer: Insights from Counterterrorism Theories," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 265-276, December.
    5. Christos Ellinas & Neil Allan & Caroline Coombe, 2018. "Evaluating the role of risk networks on risk identification, classification and emergence," Papers 1801.05759, arXiv.org.
    6. Zhou, Jian & Coit, David W. & Felder, Frank A. & Wang, Dali, 2021. "Resiliency-based restoration optimization for dependent network systems against cascading failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    7. Matteo Cinelli & Giovanna Ferraro & Antonio Iovanella, 2017. "Resilience of Core-Periphery Networks in the Case of Rich-Club," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.

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