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Group testing as a strategy for COVID-19 epidemiological monitoring and community surveillance

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  • Vincent Brault
  • Bastien Mallein
  • Jean-François Rupprecht

Abstract

We propose an analysis and applications of sample pooling to the epidemiologic monitoring of COVID-19. We first introduce a model of the RT-qPCR process used to test for the presence of virus in a sample and construct a statistical model for the viral load in a typical infected individual inspired by large-scale clinical datasets. We present an application of group testing for the prevention of epidemic outbreak in closed connected communities. We then propose a method for the measure of the prevalence in a population taking into account the increased number of false negatives associated with the group testing method.Author summary: Sample pooling consists in combining samples from multiple individuals into a single pool that is then tested using a unique test-kit. A positive test means that at least one individual within the pool is infected. Sample pooling could provide the means for rapid and massive testing for the presence of SARS-CoV2 among asymptomatic individuals. Here, we do not address any diagnostic problems—e.g. how to use a minimal number of tests to obtain an individual diagnostic—but rather focus on population-scale application of pooling. We first quantify the reduction of test sensitivity due to sample dilution and quantify the efficiency of large pools in (i) obtaining precise estimates of the proportion of infected individuals in the general population at reduced costs and (ii) implementing regular large-scale screenings beneficial in the early detection of epidemic outbreaks within communities (e.g. nursing homes or university campuses).

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Brault & Bastien Mallein & Jean-François Rupprecht, 2021. "Group testing as a strategy for COVID-19 epidemiological monitoring and community surveillance," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-25, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1008726
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008726
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Koen B. Pouwels & Laurence S. J. Roope & Adrian Barnett & David J. Hunter & Terry M. Nolan & Philip M. Clarke, 2020. "Group Testing for SARS-CoV-2: Forward to the Past?," PharmacoEconomics - Open, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 207-210, June.
    2. Christian Gollier & Olivier Gossner, 2020. "Group testing against Covid-19," Post-Print hal-02550740, HAL.
    3. Roman Wölfel & Victor M. Corman & Wolfgang Guggemos & Michael Seilmaier & Sabine Zange & Marcel A. Müller & Daniela Niemeyer & Terry C. Jones & Patrick Vollmar & Camilla Rothe & Michael Hoelscher & To, 2020. "Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019," Nature, Nature, vol. 581(7809), pages 465-469, May.
    4. Olivier Gossner, 2020. "Group Testing against COVID-19," Working Papers 2020-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Testing

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    Cited by:

    1. Bellanca, Nicolo', 2021. "Strategie di governo e strutture egemoniche in tempo di pandemia [Governance strategies and hegemonic structures in times of pandemic]," MPRA Paper 111234, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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