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Financial Market Linkages in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate GARCH Model

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  • Ahmed M. Khalid

    (Faculty of Business, Bond University, Gold Coast, Australia.)

  • Gulasekaran Rajaguru

    (Faculty of Business, Bond University, Gold Coast, Australia.)

Abstract

Regional integration of the financial markets is the building-block for globalisation and internationalisation. Many regions around the world have recently been engaged in such regional economic and financial market integration to form the basis of a more complex international financial system. The recent developments in South Asia and the revived activities under the SAARC forum have raised some hopes for a more sustained economic development in the regional economies. It is timely, therefore, to investigate the prospects of regional financial market integration in the South Asian region. In this perspective, this paper analyses the currency market integration within four South Asian countries and with their major trading partners. For empirical estimation, we use data from a sample of four South Asian countries, namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. The paper examines the nature of the causal relationship between exchange rates in the sample countries and their major trading partners. Both the short-run and the long-run causal relationships between these markets are examined using high-frequency data of exchange rates. The paper also explores whether the causal linkages between these variables are of similar intensity across the country and across the market. The nature of the mean and volatility transmission between stock and foreign exchange markets is explored through multivariate exponential GARCH model, which is capable of capturing asymmetries in the volatility transmission mechanism in both the short run and the long run within a co-integration framework. The departing feature of this approach is that it captures both linear and non-linear relationships, which are linked through second order moments. We believe that this to be fresh research on this issue for South Asia and it may have important implications for any future policy for the region.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 43 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 585-603

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:43:y:2004:i:4:p:585-603

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Keywords: Financial Market; South Asia; GARCH Model;

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References

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  1. Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi & Hausman, Jerry A, 1986. "Patents and R and D: Is There a Lag?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(2), pages 265-83, June.
  2. Khan, Saleem M. & Khan, Zahira S., 2003. "Asian economic integration: a perspective on South Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 767-785, January.
  3. Mundell, Robert, 2003. "Prospects for an Asian currency area," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February.
  4. Barry Eichengreen and Tamim Bayoumi., 1996. "Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area? Can It Become One? Regional, Global and Historical Perspectives on Asian Monetary Relations," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-081, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot, 2003. "Asymmetric ACD models: Introducing price information in ACD models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 709-731, November.
  6. Stevenson, Adlai E., 2004. "Regional financial cooperation in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 837-841, October.
  7. Khalid, Ahmed M. & Kawai, Masahiro, 2003. "Was financial market contagion the source of economic crisis in Asia?: Evidence using a multivariate VAR model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 131-156, February.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Financial cooperation and integration in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 939-955, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Abbas, Qaisar & Khan, Sabeen & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, 2013. "Volatility transmission in regional Asian stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 66-77.

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