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Social vulnerability amplifies the disparate impact of mobility on COVID-19 transmissibility across the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Huang

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Zhihui Huang

    (Southwest Jiao Tong University)

  • Chen Chen

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Jian Lin

    (University of California Merced)

  • Tony Tam

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Yingyi Hong

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Sen Pei

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Although human mobility is considered critical for the spread of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) both locally and globally, the extent to which such an association is impacted by social vulnerability remains unclear. Here, using multisource epidemiological and socioeconomic data of US counties, we develop a COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability index (CPVI) to quantify their levels of social vulnerability and examine how social vulnerability moderated the influence of mobility on disease transmissibility (represented by the effective reproduction number, Rt) during the US summer epidemic wave of 2020. We find that counties in the top CPVI quintile suffered almost double in regard to COVID-19 transmission (45.02% days with an Rt higher than 1) from mobility, particularly intracounty mobility, compared to counties in the lowest quintile (21.90%). In contrast, counties in the bottom CPVI quintile were only slightly affected by the level of mobility. As such, a 25% intracounty mobility change was associated with a 15.28% Rt change for counties in the top CPVI quintile, which is eight times the 1.81% Rt change for those in the lowest quintile. These findings suggest the need to account for the vulnerability of communities when making social distancing measures against mobility in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Huang & Zhihui Huang & Chen Chen & Jian Lin & Tony Tam & Yingyi Hong & Sen Pei, 2022. "Social vulnerability amplifies the disparate impact of mobility on COVID-19 transmissibility across the United States," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:9:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-022-01437-5
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-022-01437-5
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