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Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Flávio C Coelho
  • Raquel M Lana
  • Oswaldo G Cruz
  • Daniel A M Villela
  • Leonardo S Bastos
  • Ana Pastore y Piontti
  • Jessica T Davis
  • Alessandro Vespignani
  • Claudia T Codeço
  • Marcelo F C Gomes

Abstract

Brazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identified which areas in the country were the most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of cases, the risk of sustained transmission and their social vulnerability. Probabilistic models were used to calculate the probability of COVID-19 spread from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the initial hotspots, using mobility data from the pre-epidemic period, while multivariate cluster analysis of socio-economic indices was done to identify areas with similar social vulnerability. The results consist of a series of maps of effective distance, outbreak probability, hospital capacity and social vulnerability. They show areas in the North and Northeast with high risk of COVID-19 outbreak that are also highly socially vulnerable. Later, these areas would be found the most severely affected. The maps produced were sent to health authorities to aid in their efforts to prioritize actions such as resource allocation to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. In the discussion, we address how predictions compared to the observed dynamics of the disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Flávio C Coelho & Raquel M Lana & Oswaldo G Cruz & Daniel A M Villela & Leonardo S Bastos & Ana Pastore y Piontti & Jessica T Davis & Alessandro Vespignani & Claudia T Codeço & Marcelo F C Gomes, 2020. "Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-11, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0238214
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238214
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    Cited by:

    1. Peng Cui & Zhiyu Dong & Xin Yao & Yifei Cao & Yifan Sun & Lan Feng, 2022. "What Makes Urban Communities More Resilient to COVID-19? A Systematic Review of Current Evidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-15, August.
    2. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    3. Songhua Hu & Weiyu Luo & Aref Darzi & Yixuan Pan & Guangchen Zhao & Yuxuan Liu & Chenfeng Xiong, 2021. "Do racial and ethnic disparities in following stay-at-home orders influence COVID-19 health outcomes? A mediation analysis approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Artur Strzelecki & Ana Azevedo & Mariia Rizun & Paulina Rutecka & Kacper Zagała & Karina Cicha & Alexandra Albuquerque, 2022. "Human Mobility Restrictions and COVID-19 Infection Rates: Analysis of Mobility Data and Coronavirus Spread in Poland and Portugal," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-25, November.
    5. Marco Dueñas & Mercedes Campi & Luis E. Olmos, 2021. "Changes in mobility and socioeconomic conditions during the COVID-19 outbreak," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Kim, Suji & Lee, Sujin & Ko, Eunjeong & Jang, Kitae & Yeo, Jiho, 2021. "Changes in car and bus usage amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Relationship with land use and land price," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Bogdan Bochenek & Mateusz Jankowski & Marta Gruszczynska & Grzegorz Nykiel & Maciej Gruszczynski & Adam Jaczewski & Michal Ziemianski & Robert Pyrc & Mariusz Figurski & Jarosław Pinkas, 2021. "Impact of Meteorological Conditions on the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-13, April.
    8. Bo Huang & Zhihui Huang & Chen Chen & Jian Lin & Tony Tam & Yingyi Hong & Sen Pei, 2022. "Social vulnerability amplifies the disparate impact of mobility on COVID-19 transmissibility across the United States," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Diogo Ferraz & Enzo Barberio Mariano & Patricia Regina Manzine & Herick Fernando Moralles & Paulo César Morceiro & Bruno Guimarães Torres & Mariana Rodrigues Almeida & João Carlos Soares de Mello & Da, 2021. "COVID Health Structure Index: The Vulnerability of Brazilian Microregions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 197-215, November.
    10. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "From the lockdown to the new normal: individual mobility and local labor market characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1517-1550, October.

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