Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures shows that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis. . Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund
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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan Journals in its journal IMF Staff Papers.
Find related papers by JEL classification: O39 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Other O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
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