IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/buseco/v53y2018i3d10.1057_s11369-018-0084-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Immigration and United States Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Frederick Treyz

    (Regional Economic Models, Inc.)

  • Peter Evangelakis

    (Regional Economic Models, Inc.)

Abstract

Immigration policy is one of the most hotly contested political issues in the United States. In this paper, we evaluate the role of immigration in the U.S. economy. We pose the counterfactual question, “what would happen if net migration to the U.S. were to cease?” Using the REMI PI+ macroeconomic policy analysis model, we set to zero international immigration from 2018 to 2060, and estimate the national- and state-level economic and demographic implications of this change. Our estimates show that, in the absence of immigration, total U.S. employment would peak in 2019, and the U.S. GDP and labor force would decline by 20% through 2060. Per capita income and GDP effects, however, are relatively minor and sensitive to assumptions in labor and capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederick Treyz & Peter Evangelakis, 2018. "Immigration and United States Economic Growth," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 134-140, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:53:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1057_s11369-018-0084-2
    DOI: 10.1057/s11369-018-0084-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s11369-018-0084-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s11369-018-0084-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028," Reports 53651, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028," Reports 54318, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Rauhut & Birgit Aigner-Walder & Rahel M. Schomaker, 2023. "Economic Theory and Migration," Springer Books, in: The Economics of Immigration Beyond the Cities, chapter 0, pages 21-50, Springer.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2019. "Inequality, the risk of secular stagnation and the increase in household deb," Working Paper Research 375, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Jon Samuels, 2019. "Educational Intensity and the Sources of, and Prospects for, U.S. Economic Growth," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 36, pages 161-186, Spring.
    3. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "How Sensitive Are VAR Forecasts to Prior Hyperparameters? An Automated Sensitivity Analysis," Advances in Econometrics, in: Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part A, volume 40, pages 229-248, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Filippo Occhino, 2020. "The Effect of the 2017 Tax Reform on Investment," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(17), pages 1-5, July.
    5. Vipul Bhatt & Andre R. Neveu, 2019. "Re-Thinking Debt Burden: Going with the Flow?," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 179-203, April.
    6. Dorine Boumans & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Expected effects of the US tax reform on other countries: global and local survey evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1608-1630, December.
    7. William G. Gale & Hilary Gelfond & Jason J. Fichtner & Benjamin H. Harris, 2021. "The Wealth of Generations, With Special Attention to the Millennials," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Distribution and Mobility of Income and Wealth, pages 145-174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Edward Fox, 2020. "Does Capital Bear the U.S. Corporate Tax After All? New Evidence from Corporate Tax Returns," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 71-115, March.
    9. Daniel Fried, 2021. "CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10," Working Papers 57326, Congressional Budget Office.
    10. John C. Williams, 2018. "The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Dorine Boumans & Carla Krolage, 2018. "US Taxation and Trade Policy – Assessments of Worldwide Implications and Preferred Policy Measures," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(11), pages 57-67, June.
    12. Emanuel Kopp & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Susanna Mursula & Suchanan Tambunlertchai, 2019. "U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017," IMF Working Papers 2019/120, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Domenico Depalo, 2020. "Explaining the causal effect of adherence to medication on cholesterol through the marginal patient," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(S1), pages 110-126, October.
    14. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04," Working Papers 53616, Congressional Budget Office.
    15. Bart Hobijn, 2020. "The Supply-Side Origins of U.S. Inflation," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 7, pages 227-268, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Gale, William & Gelfond, Hilary & Fichtner, Jason, 2018. "How Will Retirement Saving Change by 2050? Prospects for the Millennial Generation," MPRA Paper 99196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Maria Ana Matias & Rita Santos & Panos Kasteridis & Katja Grasic & Anne Mason & Nigel Rice, 2022. "Approaches to projecting future healthcare demand," Working Papers 186cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    18. Lael Brainard, 2018. "Sustaining Full Employment and Inflation around Target : a speech at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, New York, May 31, 2018," Speech 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Mindy Herzfeld, 2021. "Designing international tax reform: lessons from TCJA," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1163-1187, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:53:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1057_s11369-018-0084-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.