IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/assmgt/v15y2014i4d10.1057_jam.2014.21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rethinking risk

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Estrada

    (IESE Business School)

Abstract

Volatility is the most widely used measure of risk but its relevance is questionable in many settings. For long-term investors, short-term volatility is a nuisance they just have to live with and disregard as much as possible. Tail risks, however, are critical because, although rare by definition, they have a large impact on terminal wealth. Using a comprehensive sample that spans over 19 countries and 110 years, this article argues that when 1, 5 or 10 per cent tail risks strike, stocks offer long-term investors better downside protection than bonds in the form of a higher terminal wealth. In fact, stocks offer both a higher upside potential and better downside protection than bonds, even when tail risks strike. Hence, their higher volatility essentially is higher upside risk; that is, uncertainty about how much better, not how much worse, long-term investors are expected to fare with stocks rather than with bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Estrada, 2014. "Rethinking risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(4), pages 239-259, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:15:y:2014:i:4:d:10.1057_jam.2014.21
    DOI: 10.1057/jam.2014.21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jam.2014.21
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jam.2014.21?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Tails, Fears, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2165-2211, December.
    2. Javier Estrada, 2013. "Are stocks riskier than bonds? Not if you assess risk like Warren Buffett," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 73-78, April.
    3. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    5. Javier Estrada, 2009. "The Gain‐Loss Spread: A New and Intuitive Measure of Risk," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 21(4), pages 104-114, September.
    6. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
    2. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Negative Tail Events, Emotions & Risk Taking," Working Papers 2016, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    3. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2013. "Extreme Downside Liquidity Risk," Working Papers on Finance 1326, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Jul 2015.
    4. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Tail events, emotions and risk taking," Working Papers halshs-02613344, HAL.
    5. Julia Reynolds & Leopold Sögner & Martin Wagner, 2021. "Deviations from Triangular Arbitrage Parity in Foreign Exchange and Bitcoin Markets," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 105-146, June.
    6. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    7. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Syed M. Ahsan & Panagiotis Tsigaris, 2009. "The Efficiency Loss of Capital Income Taxation under Imperfect Loss Offset Provisions," Public Finance Review, , vol. 37(6), pages 710-731, November.
    9. De Giorgi, Enrico & Hens, Thorsten & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2010. "Financial market equilibria with cumulative prospect theory," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 633-651, September.
    10. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    11. Chenglu Jin & Thomas Conlon & John Cotter, 2023. "Co-Skewness across Return Horizons," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1483-1518.
    12. Nguyen, Hung T. & Pham, Mia Hang, 2021. "Air pollution and behavioral biases: Evidence from stock market anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    13. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    14. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    15. Del Viva, Luca & Kasanen, Eero & Saunders, Anthony & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2021. "Is bailout insurance and tail risk priced in bank equities?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    16. Y. Lemp'eri`ere & C. Deremble & T. T. Nguyen & P. Seager & M. Potters & J. P. Bouchaud, 2014. "Risk Premia: Asymmetric Tail Risks and Excess Returns," Papers 1409.7720, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    17. Haim Levy & Enrico De Giorgi & Thorsten Hens, "undated". "Prospect Theory and the CAPM: A contradiction or coexistence?," IEW - Working Papers 157, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    18. Jozef Baruník & Matěj Nevrla, 2023. "Quantile Spectral Beta: A Tale of Tail Risks, Investment Horizons, and Asset Prices," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1590-1646.
    19. Pagel, Michaela, 2012. "Expectations-Based Reference-Dependent Preferences and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 47933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Herings, P.J.J. & Kubler, F., 1999. "The Robustness of the CAPM - A Computational Approach," Other publications TiSEM 06a4e5b2-f380-4d5b-a96f-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:15:y:2014:i:4:d:10.1057_jam.2014.21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.