IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/assmgt/v12y2011i3d10.1057_jam.2011.15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Profitable mean reversion after large price drops: A story of day and night in the S&P 500, 400 MidCap and 600 SmallCap Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Christian L Dunis

    (Liverpool Business School, Liverpool John Moores University, CIBEF – Centre for International Banking, Economics and Finance)

  • Jason Laws
  • Jozef Rudy

Abstract

The motivation for this article is to show the usefulness of the information contained in the open-to-close (day) and close-to-open (night) periods compared to the more frequently used close-to-close period. To show this we construct two versions of a contrarian strategy, where the worst performing shares during the day (resp. night) are bought and held during the night (resp. day). We show that the strategies presented here generate a significant α and their returns cannot be solely explained by the factors derived from Fama and French (1993) 3-factor model and a modified 5-factor model introduced by Carhart (1997). Even after we account for the bid-ask bounce effect, the returns generated are significant and consistent. The information ratios of the two strategies mentioned for the entire period 2000–2010 vary between 1.59 and 6.70 depending on the capitalization of stocks. Overall, we show that opening prices contain information that is not generally fully utilized yet. The strategy proposed uses this information to add value and extract a significant α, which cannot be explained by market factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian L Dunis & Jason Laws & Jozef Rudy, 2011. "Profitable mean reversion after large price drops: A story of day and night in the S&P 500, 400 MidCap and 600 SmallCap Indices," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(3), pages 185-202, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:12:y:2011:i:3:d:10.1057_jam.2011.15
    DOI: 10.1057/jam.2011.15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jam.2011.15
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jam.2011.15?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Jan G. De Gooijer & Cees G. H. Diks & Łukasz T. Gątarek, 2012. "Information Flows Around the Globe: Predicting Opening Gaps from Overnight Foreign Stock Price Patterns," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 23-44, March.
    4. McInish, Thomas H. & Ding, David K. & Pyun, Chong Soo & Wongchoti, Udomsak, 2008. "Short-horizon contrarian and momentum strategies in Asian markets: An integrated analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 312-329.
    5. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan L. & Joulmer, Joulmer, 2009. "Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1481-1493, August.
    6. Carlos Forner & Joaquín Marhuenda, 2003. "Contrarian and Momentum Strategies in the Spanish Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 67-88, March.
    7. Serletis, Apostolos & Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam, 2009. "Mean reversion in the US stock market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 2007-2015.
    8. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    10. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    11. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    12. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    13. Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Levy, Haim, 2008. "Nonlinear mean reversion in stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 767-782, May.
    14. Park, Jinwoo, 1995. "A Market Microstructure Explanation for Predictable Variations in Stock Returns following Large Price Changes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 241-256, June.
    15. Harrison Hong & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Trading and Returns under Periodic Market Closures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 297-354, February.
    16. Hyung‐Suk Choi & Narayanan Jayaraman, 2009. "Is reversal of large stock‐price declines caused by overreaction or information asymmetry: Evidence from stock and option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 348-376, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Wenyang & Gao, Tianxiao & Hao, Yun & Wang, Xiuqing, 2023. "Transformer-based forecasting for intraday trading in the Shanghai crude oil market: Analyzing open-high-low-close prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    2. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Huiwen & Qin, Haotong & Wei, Yigang & Chevallier, Julien, 2022. "Convolutional neural network forecasting of European Union allowances futures using a novel unconstrained transformation method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ślepaczuk Robert & Sakowski Paweł & Zakrzewski Grzegorz, 2018. "Investment Strategies that Beat the Market. What Can We Squeeze from the Market?," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 36-55, December.
    2. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski & Paweł Sakowski, 2012. "Investment strategies beating the market. What can we squeeze from the market?," Working Papers 2012-04, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    3. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    4. repec:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:1:p:84-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Savor, Pavel G., 2012. "Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 635-659.
    6. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    7. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    8. Ericsson, Johan & Karlsson, Sune, 2003. "Choosing Factors in a Multifactor Asset Pricing Model: A Bayesian Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 524, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Feb 2004.
    9. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    10. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2015. "Asset-pricing anomalies at the firm level," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 113-128.
    11. Sara Kelly Anzinger & Chinmoy Ghosh & Milena Petrova, 2017. "The Other Side of Value: The Effect of Quality on Price and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 429-457, April.
    12. Neszveda, G., 2019. "Essays on behavioral finance," Other publications TiSEM 05059039-5236-42a3-be1b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2007. "Neoclassical Factors," NBER Working Papers 13282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    15. Correia, Ricardo & Barbosa, António, 2019. "Can Post-Earnings Announcement Drift and Momentum Explain Reversal?," MPRA Paper 97458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Christos Argyropoulos & Bertrand Candelon & Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2020. "Toward a Macroprudential Regulatory Framework for Mutual Funds," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    17. Hofmann, Daniel & Keiber, Karl Ludwig & Luczak, Adalbert, 2022. "Up and down together? On the linkage of momentum and reversal," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    19. Ruanmin Cao & Lajos Horváth & Zhenya Liu & Yuqian Zhao, 2020. "A study of data-driven momentum and disposition effects in the Chinese stock market by functional data analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 335-358, January.
    20. Güler ARAS & İlhan ÇAM & Bilal ZAVALSIZ & Serkan KESKİN, 2018. "Fama-French Çok Faktör Varlık Fiyatlama Modellerinin Performanslarının Karşılaştırılması: Borsa İstanbul Üzerine Bir Uygulama," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 47(2), pages 183-207, November.
    21. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:12:y:2011:i:3:d:10.1057_jam.2011.15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.