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Global Relation between Financial Distress and Equity Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Pengjie Gao
  • Christopher A. Parsons
  • Jianfeng Shen

Abstract

This study explores the distress risk anomaly—the tendency for stocks with high credit risk to perform poorly—among 38 countries over two decades. We find a strongly negative relationship between default probabilities and equity returns concentrated among low-capitalization stocks in developed countries in North America and Europe. Although risk-based explanations provide a poor account of these patterns, several pieces of evidence point to a behavioral interpretation, suggesting that stocks of firms in financial distress are temporarily overpriced. Received March 5, 2013; editorial decision December 4, 2016 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengjie Gao & Christopher A. Parsons & Jianfeng Shen, 2018. "Global Relation between Financial Distress and Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 239-277.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:1:p:239-277.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhx060
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    Cited by:

    1. Cakici, Nusret & Fieberg, Christian & Metko, Daniel & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Machine learning goes global: Cross-sectional return predictability in international stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Gergana Jostova & Alexander Philipov, 2022. "The Distress Anomaly is Deeper than You Think: Evidence from Stocks and Bonds [The prediction of corporate bankruptcy: a discriminant analysis]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 355-405.
    3. Zaafri A. Husodo & M. Budi Prasetyo & Rizky Luxianto & Theresia Silitonga & Januar Hafidz & M. Harris Muhajir & Inna Firindra, 2018. "Mispricing And Risk Taking In The Indonesian Stock Market," Working Papers WP/28/2018, Bank Indonesia.
    4. Yang, Shanxiang & Liu, Zhechen & Wang, Xinjie, 2020. "News sentiment, credit spreads, and information asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Ampudia, Miguel & Busetto, Filippo & Fornari, Fabio, 2022. "Chronicle of a death foretold: does higher volatility anticipate corporate default?," Working Paper Series 2749, European Central Bank.
    6. Guanping Zhou, 2019. "Financial distress prevention in China: Does gender of board of directors matter?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(6), pages 1-8.
    7. Ampudia, Miguel & Busetto, Filippo & Fornari, Fabio, 2022. "Chronicle of a death foretold: does higher volatility anticipate corporate default?," Bank of England working papers 1001, Bank of England.
    8. Khaira Amalia Fachrudin & M. Fikri Ihsan, 2021. "The Effect of Financial Distress Probability, Firm Size and Liquidity on Stock Return of Energy Users Companies in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 296-300.
    9. Xiaole Wan & Zhen Zhang & Chi Zhang & Qingchun Meng, 2020. "Stock Market Temporal Complex Networks Construction, Robustness Analysis, and Systematic Risk Identification: A Case of CSI 300 Index," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-19, July.
    10. Liu, Bibo & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2020. "Time-varying demand for lottery: Speculation ahead of earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 789-817.
    11. Gao, Li & He, Wei & Wang, Qian, 2019. "In search of distress risk in China's stock market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    12. Mohammad Aladwan & Omar Alsinglawi & Omar M. Alhawatmeh & Mohammad Almaharmeh, 2023. "Corporate Financial Performance and the Intervening Role of Energy Operating Costs: The Case of Jordanian Electricity Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 202-212, September.
    13. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2020. "Lottery-Related Anomalies: The Role of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 473-501, January.
    14. Damir Tokic & Dave Jackson, 2023. "When a correction turns into a bear market: What explains the depth of the stock market drawdown? A discretionary global macro approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 184-197, May.
    15. Assaf Eisdorfer & Amit Goyal & Alexei Zhdanov, 2018. "Distress Anomaly and Shareholder Risk: International Evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 553-581, September.
    16. Nedumparambil, Elizabeth & Bhandari, Anup Kumar, 2020. "Credit risk – Return puzzle: Evidence from India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 195-206.
    17. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2015. "Lottery-related anomalies: the role of reference-dependent preferences," Globalization Institute Working Papers 259, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Idrees, Sahar & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "The Impact of Financial Distress Risk on Equity Returns: A Case Study of Non-Financial Firms of Pakistan Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 85346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Li, Tangrong & Lin, Hui, 2021. "Credit risk and equity returns in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 588-613.
    20. Hollstein, Fabian & Sejdiu, Vulnet, 2023. "Probability distortions, collectivism, and international stock prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    21. Andreou, Christoforos K. & Lambertides, Neophytos & Panayides, Photis M., 2021. "Distress risk anomaly and misvaluation," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    22. Xin Chen & Wei He & Libin Tao & Jianfeng Yu, 2023. "Attention and Underreaction-Related Anomalies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 636-659, January.
    23. Kim, Dongcheol & Lee, Inro & Na, Haejung, 2019. "Financial distress, short sale constraints, and mispricing," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 94-111.
    24. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.

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