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Financial Loss Aversion Illusion

Author

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  • Christoph Merkle

Abstract

We test the proposition that investors’ ability to cope with financial losses is much better than they expect. In a panel survey of investors from a large bank in the UK, we ask for their subjective ratings of anticipated returns and experienced returns. The time period covered by the panel (2008–10) is one where investors experienced frequent losses and gains in their portfolios. This period offers a unique setting to evaluate investors’ hedonic experiences. We examine how the subjective ratings behave relative to expected portfolio returns and experienced portfolio returns. Loss aversion is strong for anticipated outcomes; investors are twice as sensitive to negative expected returns as to positive expected returns. However, when evaluating experienced returns, the effect diminishes by more than half and is well below commonly found loss aversion coefficients. This suggests that a large part of investors’ financial loss aversion results from an affective forecasting error.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Merkle, 2020. "Financial Loss Aversion Illusion," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 381-413.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:24:y:2020:i:2:p:381-413.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfz002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Escobar, Laura & Pedraza, Alvaro, 2023. "Active trading and (poor) performance: The social transmission channel," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 139-165.
    2. Christian Stettler, 2020. "Loss Averse Depositors and Monetary Policy around Zero," KOF Working papers 20-476, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    3. D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy & Merli, Maxime, 2021. "Do retail investors bite off more than they can chew? A close look at their return objectives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 879-902.
    4. Ouzan, Samuel, 2020. "Loss aversion and market crashes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 70-86.
    5. Christoph Merkle & Jan Müller-Dethard & Martin Weber, 2021. "Closing a mental account: the realization effect for gains and losses," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 303-329, March.
    6. Mohammad Tariqul Islam Khan, 2022. "Prior perceived losses and investment objectives after stock market crisis: a moderated-mediation model of risk tolerance and loss aversion," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Vats, Nishant & Kundu, Shohini, 2021. "Banking networks and economic growth: from idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations," ESRB Working Paper Series 128, European Systemic Risk Board.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Affective forecasting error; Experience; Loss aversion; Individual investors; Return expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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