IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v103y1988i2p313-332..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

There has been much recent discussion about the ultimate sources of macroeconomic variability. A number of authors attribute most of this variability to only a few sources, sometimes only one. Although there may be only a few important sources, this is far from obvious, since economies seem complicated. The purpose of this paper is to provide quantitative estimates of various sources of variability using a U. S. econometric model. Stochastic simulation is used to estimate how much the overall variances of real GNP and the GNP deflator are reduced when various shocks are suppressed in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 1988. "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(2), pages 313-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:103:y:1988:i:2:p:313-332.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1885115
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1997. "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter," NBER Working Papers 6230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rizwan Tahir, 1994. "Estimating the Quantitative Importance of Various Sources of Macroeconomic Variability," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1073-1087.
    4. Kenneth D. West, 1990. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Aggregate Inventories and GNP," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(4), pages 939-971.
    5. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
    6. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February.
    7. Einar Bowitz & Stein Inge Hove, 1996. "Business cycles and fiscal policy: Norway 1973-93," Discussion Papers 178, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:103:y:1988:i:2:p:313-332.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/qje .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.